From the category archives:

Finance

March 16, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

Several months ago, I told you about a strategy for building substantial wealth and planting an important flag with your Individual Retirement Account.

There are a few trillion dollars worth of retirement savings trapped in the United States, the vast majority of which is eeking out inadequate returns that make the money managers rich and leave the rest of us grateful for crumbs.

With this important strategy, though, anyone’s IRA can be unchained and free to invest in whatever you see fit– physical gold and silver coins, foreign real estate, Asia/Pacific currencies, etc. But these examples only scratch the surface.

It’s called an Open Opportunity IRA, and at the time, I described this strategy as the biggest investment “no brainer” I’d seen in a long, long time. Today, it makes even more sense… and here’s why:

This year, for the first time ever, the IRS has opened up a window for everyone to convert their traditional IRA into a Roth IRA.  Frankly, I think they provide these retirement incentives because they know that social security is broke, so they try to give responsible savers an extra leg-up on retirement.

The huge plus for making the conversion to Roth is that when you eventually withdraw the money, it’s tax free.  Naturally, though, the IRS will tax you on the value of your retirement account when you make the conversion… but if you have one of these Open Opportunity IRAs, you can cut the tax bill in half!

For an IRA worth $200,000, the savings could be nearly $40,000. It works, and it makes a lot of sense.

Furthermore, most people have unfortunately little control over their retirement savings… they’re only able to invest in pre-packaged products with often meager returns.  That’s because the large, retail money managers have a larger incentive to make themselves rich than to make you rich.

What most people don’t know is that IRA’s were designed to be much, much more. Being able to take the gloves off and invest your retirement funds in just about anything on a tax-deferred or tax free basis is really the best game in town.

When I first started talking about this last year, it was before the IRS conversion change… and I didn’t really have a great resource to refer you to.

Fortunately, my friend Terry Coxon, best-selling author and renowned economist, just released a new e-book about the topic this week.  It’s called Unleash Your IRA, and I cannot recommend it more highly– it’s a highly actionable guide that walks you through Open Opportunity IRAs step-by-step.

If you have an IRA, you should consider this book. Terry is highly respected for good reason– his thoughtful work is always full of value and insight, and in his new book, he takes on a topic that EVERY American needs to fully understand and exploit… and yet it’s something that almost nobody knows is even possible.

Click here for more information.

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March 15, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

I was laying in bed sick recently watching Conan the Barbarian… yes I admit it. Some people eat chicken soup, I drown myself in cheesy Hollywood violence.

If you haven’t see it, you’re not missing much of a plot– Arnold Schwarzenegger at his physical prime wields a big sword and searches for treasure to plunder.

As I watched the Governator decapitate his foes two at a time, I couldn’t help wondering if this was the image that Nouriel Roubini had in mind when he called gold a “barbarous relic” in the highly publicized tit-for-tat argument he was having with Jim Rogers…

In blasting gold and gold bugs alike, Roubini indicated that gold is a new bubble waiting to burst, and that the idea of $2,000 gold is merely speculative fantasy.

To be clear, I am not a gold bug… but I’ve found Roubini’s comments to be off-the-mark. How can there be a gold bubble without widespread gold mania? Wait until the shoeshine boy is having conversations with his customers about Eagles and Maple Leafs… that’ll be a clear sign of mania.

With all the ‘Cash for Gold’ locations I’ve seen sprouting up all around the world, we may be in the very early stages of developing this mania, but for now, the vast majority of people still don’t own a single ounce.
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March 10, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

Yesterday I apparently declared a premature end to major combat operations against the virus that has invaded my body.  Maybe it was just the celebratory Mexican food I ate last night to commemorate the end of my 4-day sickness, but I now seem to be experiencing my own W-shaped recovery.

Always the optimist, though, I’m actually grateful for a few things; namely, I’ve been too consumed with the rugby match being played inside my cranium to pay much attention to the most recent socialist musings of European leaders– something that would ordinarily have me spitting fire at the magnitude of their arrogance.

Most glaringly, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has been on a bicontinental tour seeking political support to eliminate some forms of derivatives trading… all with the goal of preventing “unprincipled speculators” from making money by betting on a Greek default.

Rather than misdirecting his criticism at speculators, though, Papandreou should look no further than the nearest mirror to levy criticism.  As a legendary Greek political family, three different Papandreous have spent a combined 10-years as Prime Minister, so there has been ample opportunity to get spending under control.

To lay blame at “unprincipled speculators” as a chief cause of the Greek crisis is thus completely ignorant and hypocritical.  Not to mention, Papandreou should be courting speculators to buy his country’s debt, not vilifying them.
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March 4, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

It wasn’t too long ago that there was a concrete dividing line down the center of Europe with large scale nukes pointed at both ends. It wasn’t long before that when two sides were battling it out in Normandy, or in the trenches before that.

Throughout the last thousand or so years, in fact, there are few and short-lived periods of peace among European countries. Just in the last 200 years, over 60 wars and armed conflicts were fought between at least two European powers.

This is why the whole idea of Europeans patching up their differences and playing nice under the auspices of a central bank-controlled fiat currency makes absolutely no sense at all.

I’m not trying to predict another armed conflict here… but these are sovereign nations who have a rich cultural history of going to war against each other to expand their sovereignty. For the past 10-years they’ve given up their sovereignty to the European Central Bank… and for what?

It worked for the better part of a decade because times were good. Now times are tough, and the alliance is frayed once again.

My friend Porter Stansberry (whom I believe to have one of the best common-sense investment approaches in the business) recently wrote, “next to corn-based ethanol, the euro might be the worst large-scale political/economic experiment I can think of…”

Agreed. Now, I discussed this all last week and don’t want to belabor the issue… but I would like to raise two important points:
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March 2, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

Thanks to completely draconian US-led regulation, opening a bank account anywhere is about as fun as a barium enema.  Opening a foreign bank account can be an even greater nightmare.

Most of the time, a foreign bank will want you standing there, in person, to open an account, as well as to provide a seemingly endless array of notarized documents, stamped papers, and letters of reference.

Trust me, it’s not their preference either… in order to keep from being blacklisted by the OECD, though, banks have to resort to this level of bureaucracy.  They’re called “Know Your Customer (KYC)” rules, and the idea is to over-collect personal and financial information in order to determine that a bank customer is not a terrorist.

Anyone with half a brain can see that this is one of the stupidest notions in the world.  It’s like locks on a door– if someone wants to break in, a pithy little lock is not going to stop him.  Similarly, if a “terrorist” (I hate even using that word) wants to open a bank account, an avalanche of paperwork is not going to stop him.

As an example, I would point to accused arms dealer Victor Bout who currently sits in prison right here in Thailand; Bout was placed under US and UN sanctions back in July 2004, and yet he was still able to register numerous Delaware companies with bank accounts.

All the KYC regulations do is make it much more difficult for everyone else.

In our regular conversations, we’ve talked about the importance of having a foreign bank account… it is an essential flag to plant overseas, and you want to really consider low-tax jurisdictions with a strong, stable financial sector that have a history of not plundering the banks.

This includes places like Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore, Panama, UAE, Qatar, and a few others.

Many people understand the need to move some money out of their home country but are simply unable to take a far away trip just to open a bank account.  If you’re one of these people, here’s an easy back door. It’s less than ideal, but it works.

The first thing you need to do is pick your banking jurisdiction, i.e. Hong Kong, Singapore, etc. and then find a large multinational bank in that jurisdiction that has a branch near you.

As an example, I will use Hong Kong and HSBC… though there are other jurisdictions and banks that you could use as well (Standard Chartered, etc.)  HSBC is a good example because it has a presence in more than 60 countries, and you’d be hard pressed to find a civilized place that does not have a branch.

Among HSBC’s many branches are offices in Los Angeles, Miami, Vancouver, etc. So first you call HSBC in Hong Kong, explain that you are a foreigner, want to open a bank account, and would like to certify all the paperwork through your local HSBC branch.

The HSBC rep in Hong Kong will fax you all the appropriate paperwork, and when you have completed the documentation requirements, you should get in touch with the nearest HSBC branch in your home country and make sure they have “international banking services” available.

Let’s say you live in Orlando… that means you should head down to Miami, and the Miami branch will validate all the documents on behalf of the Hong Kong office.

Afterwards, the Hong Kong office will receive the documents and finalize the account opening.

This is the fastest and easiest way to open a foreign bank account without actually having to fly to a foreign country and go through the process on the ground.

The obvious disadvantage is that many people do not want to deal with a large, multinational foreign bank like HSBC, Standard Chartered, etc. I agree; it’s better to deal with a solvent local bank that does not have a large international presence.

However, unless/until you are able to get on a plane and fly to Asia, Europe, or the Middle East, this is one of the best and most cost effective interim solutions.

To be clear, even though you are opening it through a local branch in your home country, the bank account will be considered foreign and based in the offshore jurisdiction that you chose. If you are a US citizen, this obliges you to file US Treasury form TDF-90-22.1 by June 30 of each year.

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March 1, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

There’s something not right with the world.

Yes, I’m dismayed by this weekend’s earthquake in Chile (I really adore the country), and am quite disgusted by the US government’s extension of the PATRIOT Act. Fortunately, I know the Chileans will pull through just fine, and the US government will eventually collapse under its own weight.

What’s really grabbing my attention right now is what’s happening in the markets.

A few weeks ago I wrote about “Lessons from the Intelligence Business,” in which I discussed the Gold/Silver ratio as an indicator of economic expectations. The higher the ratio (the more silver it takes to ‘buy’ gold), the greater the indication of uncertain expectations in the marketplace.

Similarly, and perhaps more importantly, I pay very close attention to the “TED Spread,” which is essentially the rate difference between three-month Treasuries and LIBOR. In other words, the TED spread (Treasury/EuroDollar) is the difference between what banks pay each other for 3-month loans, and what the US government pays.

Naturally, since the US government is erroneously deemed “risk-free”, the banks’ rate is higher… usually averaging about 0.3% to 0.5%, or 30 to 50 basis points higher than the Treasury rate. When times are tough and banks are going out of business, the TED spread rises– it peaked at 460 basis points in October 2008 when banks were terrified to lend to each other.

Now, the opposite is happening.

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February 16, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

The popular press has been bandying a lot of cute acronyms for the ’sick’ European countries. I have seen PIIGS, STUPIDs, and DUHs… and while the individual circumstances of each country are different, they all have one thing in common–

Their obligations far exceed their assets, and they have to borrow money just to pay interest on the money that they’ve already borrowed.

We don’t need a new acronym because there’s already a word for it: junkie. Before too long, the entire euro zone may be heading in this direction… in fact, while the final nail may be a long way off, markets are clearly starting to build a coffin for the euro.
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February 11, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

Years ago, when I was a bright-eyed lieutenant anxious to defend the world against evil and tyranny, the government decided to ship me off to become an intelligence officer.

I remember a lot of the classroom training, learning about the enemy’s order of battle and maneuver capabilities. Ironically, we were still studying Soviet tactics at the time, even though the Berlin Wall had become a tourist attraction over a decade prior.

During my field training, we focused on collection efforts and intelligence gathering. My instructors would continually hammer into us the importance of ‘indicators,’ signs or symptoms that strongly imply a future action or trend.

According to our threat doctrine, for example, a small isolated scout platoon would be an indicator for a heavily armed vanguard only a few kilometers behind. Ground commanders would rely on these indicators to make tactical decisions, e.g. reinforcing defensive positions in expectation of the vanguard’s attack within the hour.

In his book Art of War, Sun Tzu wrote, “Intelligence is the most important work, because the entire force relies on it for every move… It is the essence of strategy.” Outside of war, the same holds true in finance. Savvy investors rely on market and economic indicators to provide intelligence on future trends.

Part of the trick is differentiating the valuable indicators from the worthless ones… and too many people pay attention to worthless indicators.  Government-manufactured statistics like inflation and unemployment rates, for example, are merely comical charades masquerading as economic indicators.

To get an indication of where the economy is headed, you have to listen to the economy. To get an indication of where the market is headed, you have to listen to the market.

I’ll give you a few examples:

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