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SOVEREIGN MAN

A city of 7 million you’ve probably never heard of…

Tim3

November 13, 2012,
Surabaya, East Java, Indonesia.

[Editor’s note: Sovereign Man Chief Investment Strategist Tim Staermose is filling in for Simon today.]

Surabaya in East Java is a glamorous old city that became a colonial stronghold during the time of the Dutch East Indies.  It was also the starting point for the Indonesian independence movement, which fanned out across the archipelago after the Japanese surrender in 1945.

The city probably reached its peak during the roaring ’20s when world famous figures such as comedian Charlie Chaplin and novelist Joseph Conrad for a brief time called it home.

The Hotel Majapahit, where I have been staying, is a magnificent old colonial hotel built in 1910. It was known as the Oranje Hotel, after the Dutch Royal family, and in its early days was THE place to be.

The opulence of the place is quite extraordinary with wall-to-wall marble, hand-made mosaic tiles, and teak.  The Presidential Suite, I am told, is over 8,500 square feet.

Tim1 268x300 A city of 7 million you’ve probably never heard of…

Tim2 244x300 A city of 7 million you’ve probably never heard of…

If only the walls could talk. The history all around me serves as a poignant reminder of how empires rise, peak and decline.

The Dutch first landed here to in 1595 to secure spices, reportedly making a 400% return on their investment. Such profit set off a gold rush to the East Indies, and the Dutch empire eventually came to dominate the archipelago we today know as Indonesia for 350 years.

But eventually, the ongoing expense of fighting localized wars against the native people, corruption, and mismanagement led to the empire’s decline.

As Simon and I have repeatedly pointed out in these missives, today it is the United States that faces a similar decline. Having reached the point where they must borrow money to pay interest on the money they’ve already borrowed, the US government has passed the point of no return.

But just because the US government’s finances are toast doesn’t mean US companies are in the same boat.

Sipping a Starbucks coffee in a glitzy new shopping mall in Surabaya once again shows how homogenous the world has become.  Stores here sell western brand clothes as locals tap away on their iPhones, gossiping on Facebook and Twitter.

The packed McDonalds on Surabaya’s main business thoroughfare is a three-story megalith — the biggest I’ve seen anywhere, aside from the old flagship store in Beijing’s Tiananmen Square.

Tim3 300x225 A city of 7 million you’ve probably never heard of…

With the possible exception of Vietnam and Myanmar, I see the same things throughout my travels in Asia: the new middle class in Asia aspires to the same things most westerners do.

And those not yet in the ranks of the urban middle class nearly all want to be.  This creates a new demand for the products and services that American corporations are the best in the world at delivering.

Today, Surabaya is Indonesia’s second-largest city with over 7 million inhabitants (3 million within the city limits and another 4 million in the suburbs). China and India have more than 50 cities just like it.

In each one, American companies will tap into vast, new, rapidly growing markets.

So, just because Uncle Sam is going down the gurgler doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be bearish on US companies.  There is literally a world of opportunity beyond America’s borders.

Who needs the government and the military?  Or even US consumers? With tens of millions of new Asian customers, the US is still conquering the globe with movies, jeans, fast food, and the world’s most popular websites.
Until next time,

Tim Staermose,
Chief Investment Strategist
Sovereign Man

About the author: Born to a Danish father and British mother, in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania, Tim Staermose has led an international life since the day he was born. Growing up, he also lived in Egypt, Denmark, and Singapore, before eventually settling in Australia, where he completed his education and took out citizenship. Since then he has also lived and worked in Hong Kong, and Manila, Philippines, in the field of equity research — both for a bulge-bracket Wall Street investment bank, and for an independent investment research firm. Today, when not traveling the globe looking for investment and business opportunities for the Sovereign Man community and catching up with his diverse, multinational group of friends, he divides his time between Hong Kong, and the Philippines.

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  • James Labu

    I live in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia where car prices are among the most expensive in the world. But on average, a working adult own more than 1 car. I have many neighbors with 2 adult own at least 3 cars. House prices are crazy. Loans rates are getting cheaper.

    Nobody preps for food, water or safety since everything is always normal. Government spends ridiculously on charity and government employee benefts. Too many foreigners enjoy subsidies such as petrol, healthcare and food.

    I believe in 10-20 years time, we’ll be like US or europe, financially..

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