Inflation doublethink

by · 7 comments

February 17, 2011
Panama City, Panama

Recent headlines below:

“World Bank: Global food prices are rising to dangerous levels”

“Sysco declares force majeure, raises grocery prices”

“The J. M. Smucker Company Announces Coffee Price Increases”

“Kraft warns on price increases”

“Kellogg says it will raise prices”

“Sara Lee to raise prices again on higher commodity costs”

“Bridgestone To Raise Prices”

“Goodyear will raise tire prices up to 6%”

“Allstate rates rise; patience with execs runs thin”

“State Farm wants 28 percent rate increase in Fla.”

“Blue Shield to delay Calif. health rate hikes [for only 60 days]”

“Wellmark [Midwest division of Blue Cross] Rate Hike Approved”

“Abercrombie & Fitch CEO says retailer will have to raise prices”

“Sprint bumps up its smart-phone data plans $10 a month”

“Xcel Energy customers to see rate hikes”

And then there’s this quote to tie it all together:

“Overall inflation is still quite low and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.” — Ben Bernanke, February 9, 2011

If it wasn’t perfectly clear before, it should be now. This man is either completely out of touch, or he’s a conniving liar. In either case, you should not allow him to be responsible for your well being.

Don’t let the rising stock market fool you into thinking that everything is back on track. It’s impossible to read these headlines and not see at least half of the things that you use frequently– food, coffee, electricity, mobile phone, insurance…

Here’s the bottom line– failing to properly protect your savings, seek alternate sources of income, and diversify your sovereign risk gets you a free one-way ticket on the economic Hindenburg.

Inflation begets economic trouble. Economic trouble begets social unrest. Social unrest begets political instability… and as we saw in Egypt, political instability (and social unrest) begets a police state.

If you don’t want to be around for it, I’d suggest taking action immediately. The quick start guide is this:

1) Open a foreign bank account. Even if you don’t fund it yet, at least have the means to shovel your money overseas in a hurry.

2) Park at least a portion of your savings in stable, inflation-proof assets, preferably overseas.

3) Look for alternate sources of income– don’t rely on the traditional job market or wait for the government and central bank to create jobs… everyone is good at something, most likely a lot of things. Think about how you can add value, how you can solve problems.

If you’re looking for ideas, particularly for an Internet-based business, one site that I strongly recommend you check out is InternetIndependence.com, run by my close friend and entrepreneurial guru Craig Ballantyne.

4) Look at your own personal vulnerabilities. What would happen if you lost your job? If food became extremely expensive? If gas prices made normal commuting and errands cost prohibitive? If your healthcare became unaffordable? Consider lifestyle changes to reduce these vulnerabilities.

5) Begin researching, in earnest, places overseas where you can go and can live comfortably with the right opportunities you’re looking for. Frequently, the lifestyle changes you need to make can be easily found overseas.

Look, if the skies open and some white knight comes riding in to save the day and stave off any major crisis, you won’t be any worse off for increasing your self-reliance and making preparations. You have nothing to lose and everything to gain by being cautious.

More than likely, though, the miraculous white knight will never come, and just a few years from now, people will be wondering, ‘how the hell did we ever reach this point?’

I think at that point, a few years from now, people will look back today and wonder why they didn’t see the warning signs… in the future, when hindsight is 20/20, it will seem to have been so obvious today.

Stop listening to national leadership and start listening to your instincts. They’re telling you that something’s wrong, and the clear, obvious facts confirm those suspicions. The only people who don’t get it are the ones pulling the strings.

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2011-02-17
  • Urbansurvivalman

    Simon Black is another common sense straight shooter who people should listen to.

    Would be interested to hear Simon’s thoughts on fuel price thresholds before a definitive collapse begins.

    Having just found “Sovereignman.com”, I will add to a growing list of collapse indicators as well as post a link to this site from http://www.urbansurvivalskills.com

  • Diogenes

    Great post. I blogged almost the same article but with different economic news in 2009, predicting an inflationary crash by the end of 2011, I stand by that. Peter Schiff also said a 2011 crash is a significant likelihood. So that's my only quibble,it's not a 'few years', it's one year.

    I think the only question is how fast will the crash proceed after it starts, either in days/weeks or over a period of 6 to 12 months.

    I think the answer is determined by 3 things:
    1. will foreign buyers of US bonds stop buying them with no warning
    2. how fast can a new world reserve currency replace the dollar.
    3. how quickly can the US and other governments continue to destroy their own economies with regulations and taxes.

    1 and 2 could be immediate or slower, and 3 will get worse over time. I think it will add up to the US getting outright desperate by the end of 2011, various emergency measures in place by then, and a bond and currency transition starting to happen at the end of that time. By the time this process starts in the second half of 2011, it will be too late to get money out of the US, and the US will sink into a nightmare of riots, defacto martial law and desperate poverty over the transition period.

    Simon's right-know your neighbors, know and develop your own immediately employable skills-greenhouse work, plumbing,electricity,car repair, gun smithing, electronic intrusion sensors,short wave radio work,etc. Save your silver and gold coins, store and hide your food someplace, don't tell a soul you have done any of that, and purposely lose weight after the rationing starts in early 2012. Don't share your food with anyone unless you want 200 people on your doorstep by nightfall.

    • Jessecraig

      When people get hungry can smell food a long ways off. I bought a ton of beans and rice and my family made fun of me. I still think that is good.

  • Vicky

    Hi Simon!
    I have good chances of being a turkish decent (my father would be turkish, but that need to be confirmed). Is turkish citizenship and passport is a good thing to have? What do you think of this country?
    PS: I live in Canada. And it is raining in feburary…

  • http://twitter.com/lubedirect Michael Sparks

    I can totally agree with Sovereignman about finding other forms of income. This would be especially true if leaving the country is out of the question. I've built an inflation proof, product oriented, people business that should help me weather the storm in the coming years.

  • 1olde_reb2

    A mathematical analysis showing:

    1. The present practice in the U.S. of creating book entry money via T-securities (deficit spending) in the amount of the principal of the security, with a promise to repay the principal PLUS the interest, is impossible. The interest is never created; the debt is perpetual and must continually be increased or the economy will collapse from de-leveraging;

    2. All other fiscal obligations of the nation must be curtailed while the growth in debt will escalate. The exponential growth of the interest in the Ponzi scheme will cause the interest and rolled-over debt to increase until it consumes the entire wealth of society;

    3. ALL money created by Treasury securities goes into the pocket of the Fed. Not only does the Fed receive the interest (if not sold), but also the value of the security upon maturity (or by sale). Congress has temporary benefit of the fiat money (until maturity);

    4. The operation is, as in any Ponzi scheme, predestined for inherent national bankruptcy when buyers to roll over the debt cannot be found. As the scheme becomes visibly precarious, the interest rate will sky-rocket and accelerate the collapse through hyperinflation;

    is posted at http://www.scribd.com/doc/4904… and
    http://www.synapticsparks.info…

    Is it of interest ?

  • Herb

    I've been following your letters closely and believe as you do that a second passport is a good idea. So I called the Slavic Republic's embassy (is that what they're calling Yugoslavia now?) and tried to get their help in obtaining a passport since I was born in the Serbian Capital – Belgrad. Their reply was simple: All I had to do was locate proof of birth IN THEIR ARCHIVES IN BELGRAD! I caught a whiff of the oldest rip-off in the world, a hint that about $200 would “help things along”. Thinking about this, I decided to first go on line and tried all sorts of things to locate my birth record to no avail.

    Your advice would be appreciated!

    Herb

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