I’ll tell you why Honduras is really starting to trouble me… I have a few friends left at Joint Task Force- Bravo stationed at Soto Cano Air Base about 50 miles from the capital city of Tegucigalpa, and the situation appears quite tense.
Officially the 500+ US military forces on the ground have been ordered back onto the base and to stay out of sight for the time being… SOUTHCOM, the military command that oversees troops in Honduras, is concerned that the slightest hint of US aggression or influence could result in yet another prolonged conflict.
But while the generals understand that US military forces are sapped and strained, politicians can see a silver lining in the political chaos: finding a reason to invade is a great excuse to raise taxes, dump money into the private sector to support the war, and create another US-friendly state beacon in the region to buffer against Chavez, Ortega, and Correa.
It sounds too perverted for reality, but this is the mindset of policy wonks who are itching to take their PhD dissertations for a test spin in the real world. I’m watching very carefully for signs of a troop buildup at Soto Cano in the hopes that Honduras doesn’t turn into the next Cuba.
(as an aside, I do not expect the situation in Honduras to have any adverse affect on Panama; in fact, it probably makes Panama’s stock rise as the country continues to be a beacon of stability in an otherwise nuttier region.)
My guess is that there’s probably a lot of Hondurans right now who wish they had a lifeboat strategy… remorse is a terrible emotion. There were probably a lot of Rwandans in 1994 and Japanese-Americans in 1942 who thought the same thing. Being prepared is never about pessimism of fear-mongering, but rather the rejection of the blissfully ignorant notion that ‘it could never happen here.’
It can. And it just might.
I’m not of the camp that geopolitical and economic calamity will get so bad that the entire world will look like a sequel to Mad Max: Beyond Thunderdome… perhaps I have more faith in my species and the free market. But I am open to a variety of possibilities, and more conspicuously the ‘unknown unknowns,’ to quote the potentially-soon-to-be-late Donald Rumsfeld. Consequently, I structure my life in a way that allows for maximum freedom and flexibility.
Based on my own experiences, I would suggest the following:
* Find at least one (and preferably several) places outside of your home country to escape to. Strongly consider buying property there.
* Consider a second citizenship program; at a minimum, set up residency in another country.
* Store physical and paper assets outside of your home country, and outside of the electronic banking system.
* Demand privacy.
* Keep some investment capital at the ready so that you can jump on phenomenal deals as they arise
* Look for opportunities for additional income that are not constrained by your geography
More on all of these topics in future issues; after all, that’s what this letter is all about– achieving freedom, and I sincerely hope that this content can help. On that note, I was really overwhelmed at the responses and positive feedback from Friday’s suggestion to buy Mark Nestmann’s book ‘The Lifeboat Strategy’. Again, I highly recommend that everyone read it, it’s one of the best ’starter guides’ to internationalization that I have read.
You can find it at MarkNestmann.com; based on popular demand, I’ve contacted Mark to request a short interview and to answer some of your questions in a public forum. More to follow.
{ 14 comments… read them below or add one }
You’re spot on with the direction of the newsletter IMO. I’m interested in on-the-ground intel on how to execute the the international man strategy. The colorful insights into various cultures from a first hand perspective are invaluable. Here’s a specific question: can one set up online brokerage/trading accounts outside the US that are as effective and price competitive as say for example TradeStation or Fidelity Active Trader? Thanks for all the excellent info.
Curious that you worry about the US intervening to “create another US-friendly state” against Chavez etc., when the sounds from Obama are all supportive of Zelaya, Chavez’ pal. Why would the US do that, after having elected its own version of Chavez? Also, what is your take on who the Hondurans think is legitimate? Accounts published in Investors Business Daily say that Zelaya was deposed on orders from the Supreme Court and legislature, and that the anti-Zelaya crowds are bigger than the pro-Zelaya ones. Other accounts, such as the AP’s, suggest the opposite.
Simon,
The letter is great. Perfect length, very informative and useful to me. I appreciate it.
“Look for opportunities for additional income that are not constrained by your geography” is what I have began to do over the last few months more heavily – I all but dissolved my local business. Though I have lived and worked in a few places, this is a level of freedom I have not yet enjoyed. I could really use more information on this topic. Currently I am working on a few ideas for information services on the internet. I’d eat up any further information you can offer on this topic – financial freedom from geography. I still love the work I have been doing, but I want to earn money everyday without having to be in any particular place – the tools to do it seem quite cheap.
I have sold off most of my “stuff” online – people still want to shop for shit – thus avoiding giving things away and I have sold some ridiculous household items. Retail and Hospitality are in the toilet in Victoria BC this summer and I sold a used rubber maid garbage can for $5! The Life Boat is half built!
’til next time,
Travis
I’d have to say the accounts from Investors Business Daily are clearer. Besides being the Latinamerican President with the worst approval rating (25% according to “Consulta Mitovsky” Oct. ‘08) Zelaya’s selfish and careless attitude had pinned civil, legal, public, and even religous institutions against him, but most importantly the majority of the population. Unfortunately, the pro-Zelaya coalition (including powerful friends in nearby countries) has done a larger campaigning job internationally. Here’s a link of an interesting article that came out as the situation first developed: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124623220955866301.html
My question is if it is likely the U.S. would get militarily involved if say Nicaraguan or Venezuelan troops invaded Honduran territory? Thanks for bringing the subject about. It’s very interesting.
Thomas,
Check out Saxo Bank in Denmark.
Great newsletter. Thanks!
What is your take about putting money in property in Iceland at this moment?
Do you have any recommendations for private safe deposit boxes and/or safe storage facilities in Central/South America?
Thanks!
good informative letter keep upthe good work
Simon:
I would appreciate your take on Switzerland. They are not fully integrated into the EU and have historically been economically/fiscally conservative and politically neutral. I believe that the cost of living is high, but I think that it has come down lately, on a relative basis.
I know this isn’t “off the beaten path” but because of employment constraints, I don’t have the ability to relocate to some of the more exotic locales that you typically review.
It seems like it might be a good place to ride out the storm.
Any insight would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks.
Anthony
Here is a great article on Honduras, which I cribbed from the Campaign fo Liberty website, http://www.campaignforliberty.com
I’m a big fan of this report, and I agree with everything I see on it. Although I in no way think I’m anywhere on Simon’s level, might I suggest a seventh suggestion? As the six from above are large scale, there are situations where they won’t help much straight away. In my case, I have been in the situation where I don’t have time to organise anything. If you’re like me, a great thing to have is a bag with some important items that will make any situation easier to handle. I have a black eastpak backpack containing: my several passports, £1000+ (depending), a phone charged but battery taken out, a fresh sim, a set of clothes, and a dell mini 10. Certain people will need other items, change to suit but keep it light. This will allow you to move and make the necessary plans and connections needed. Keep this away from your home, just in case. Many of my friends have wished they had one.
I.T.F
Having lived in Panama for 10 years I can offer the following advice. If you need to make a living here think in terms of a small business. Wages are terrible so you don’t want employment. The Chinese have been very successful with small businesses in Panama simply because they are very tight with their money. Almost all of their profits get put back into the business and they live on very little at least initially. The advantage is that it requires less capital to start a small business in Panama or most other places in latin america than it does in the USA. The other thing is that it is not fair to compare Obama to Chavez because Chavez is totally crazy whereas Obama is not. I didn’t come to Panama to escape the USA and it is possible I will return some day. There are advantages and disadvantages to anyplace. If you are young and just starting out there are normally better opportunities in the USA than in most of latin america. If you are retired or older with a few bucks and some business experience then there are good places in latin america to consider. The USA unlike Australia for example will pay you your social security if you live here and will also pay some additional social security for your child if you have one to a local girl. Uncle Sam does not treat us expats so bad as some people would like to think. Our new president here in Panama (Martineli) is a good businessman (he owns a large supermarket chain called Super 99) but he also tries to help the poor. He is older and had made all the money he needs so he doesn’t need to steal from the government. He is pro-business and against corruption. I am optimistic that he will be a good president. I am also optimistic about Columbia. I think Columbia has come a long way and the worst of the drug problems are behind them. Just my two cents. Volcan, Chiriqui, Panama.
Thanks for your two cents,Robert. Really helpful to have different ‘on the ground’ reports to add experience and breadth to people’s research on areas! I agree, USA is not as bad as people often make it out to be. And leaving a place on ‘good terms’ as opposed to ‘oh no,i better get out b/c of x,y and z’,generally yields more fruit. ie,focusing on the future and what you want to create,not on ‘i want the opposite of what i don’t like’.
Mindset and perspective are key. Thanks again.
This newsletter is really practical and absolute helpful specially for me – I’m living in one of the three countries that were mention in the memo.
I’m planning to have my emergency plan (get out of here) but so far I have found that is more complicated that what I thought. Any good advice will be appreciated