Should I buy gold at its all-time high?

by · 11 comments

July 27, 2011
Zagreb, Croatia

There’s one question that I’ve been seeing over and over for the last several weeks as the price of gold has taken out its all-time highs and continued a nearly uninterrupted ascent: Should I buy gold now?

It’s understandable, especially for people who don’t own precious metals yet. Nobody wants to be the sucker who buys gold at the top, only to watch it crater back to $1200 or below. But here’s some food for thought–

The US dollar is shattering historic lows against currencies like the Swiss franc, Australian dollar, and Singapore dollar. Any currency that isn’t a complete disaster is now being viewed as a safe haven. And the mainstream world is now, finally, waking up to the reality that the United States might actually default.

Never mind that the government has been insolvent for years and the evidence of such has been widely available to anyone willing to look at basic facts. Literally, only in the last week have people finally began to consider the possibility of a US default.

Here in Europe, the situation is arguably even worse.  No one is being shy about a default in Greece– it’s discussed openly now by policymakers, and major financial institutions are preparing for a restructuring. And with its public debt more than 120% of GDP, Italy will not be far behind.

Governments no longer have the benefit of operating behind a curtain; their financial imprudence and technical insolvencies are now under the spotlight for all to see… and confidence is fading quickly.

The more people lose confidence in the dollar and euro, the more they look for alternatives. Large institutions and money mangers collectively control trillions of dollars within the financial system. Unallocated capital– funds held as cash and not being actively invested at the moment– must be held somehow, somewhere.

This is the chief reason why so many smaller currencies are surging. Compared to the dollar and euro, the Swiss franc looks incredibly safe, and money managers have a much higher degree of confidence that their Swiss bonds will be repaid than they have in the US or eurozone.

The more capital flows into these smaller currencies, the more they’ll appreciate against the dollar and euro. It’s simple matter of supply and demand– increased demand for the Swiss franc coupled with excess supply of US dollars means a stronger franc in US dollar terms.

Ultimately, this is the primary reason for gold to go higher in the long term.

Large financial institutions are increasingly looking at gold as a safe haven; it’s becoming less of a speculation and more of a store of value… and unlike most of the other available asset classes, precious metals are not politically sensitive.

Even stronger currencies like the Swiss franc have limits to their appreciation. At some point, the Swiss National Bank will impose capital controls to thwart the rise of its currency. Oil and agricultural commodity prices will likely be regulated and speculation outlawed if prices become too high.

But if gold goes to $2,000… $3,000… it may be an embarrassment to central banks, but it won’t become a populist issue.  You won’t see any Tunisian merchants setting themselves ablaze because the price of gold is too high… and not too many politicians looking to fix the price.

Even if they do try to regulate gold prices or even make it illegal, you can be sure that the gold trade will continue to thrive in the rest of the world– especially in Asia and the Middle East.

So instead of worrying about buying gold at its all time high, ask yourself another question instead: Over the next few years, do you expect that these broken, bankrupt governments will inspire confidence among institutional investors, or do you think that confidence will continue to erode?

If you’re leaning towards the latter, you can be sure that more money will flow into gold, and that prices will rise.

Yes, there will be price fluctuations. Whenever the US government announces that it has finally reached a debt deal, there will probably be a correction. Given what’s coming in the next several months and years– debt downgrades, more budget battles, government shutdowns, asset seizures, etc., any correction will be a small blip along a long-term rising trend line.

And in case you’re still worried that you’d be a sucker to buy gold at $1600, consider that, if you don’t, in three years you’ll probably feel like a sucker for not buying gold at $1600 when you still had the chance.

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2011-07-27
  • Brian

    A better buy than gold right now is silver… Though, either way you can’t go wrong.

    Mainstream news is reporting that it is inevitable that at least one of the U.S. ratings agencies will downgrade the U.S.’s credit rating. When that happens, silver, gold and all precious metals will go well above where they are now.

  • Diogenese_

     It is incredible that the mainstream didn’t seriously consider the possibility of a US default until the last week or so. When I helped organize a tea party event I was called ‘racist’ for giving a speech about the urgent need to reduce the governments budget. And now president Obama has said that not raising taxes in addition to cutting the budget is ‘balancing the budget on the backs of the poor.’ Both of these completely absurd and outright irrational claims were taken as somehow true by the mainstream media. A nation in which a large percentage of the population have such a mentality is most certainly on the path to ruin.

     Gold hasn’t hit a ‘wealth high’, the same amount of Gold can buy pretty much the same amount of material things as it always could. What has happened is that the dollar has hit a new low. I think the big question is when will sellers of houses, cars, wheat, stocks and everything else stop letting themselves get ripped off by selling for dollars instead of Gold. The trick of gaining wealth by speculating on Gold will only last as long as people are foolish enough to keep selling their wealth for dollars instead of Gold. I think the American people are thick headed enough to keep doing that for the next year at least.

     Peter Schiff predicted a catastrophic collapse of the dollar in 2006 based on economic and accounting fundamentals, and has consistently stayed with that claim since. That collapse will come any day now, between tomorrow and Maybe a year or so from now. Economic and financial conditions will get ever more brutally chaotic with each day that that collapse doesn’t happen. At some point one of these 3 things will enable the collapse to happen:
    a. Chinese gov free floats the rmb globally.
    b. a world bank basket of currencies as world reserve gets lucky and succeeds out of pure widespread desperation.
    c. Some large bank starts settling accounts in Gold, such as UBS, and merchants the world over start using GoldMoney similar to how they once used Paypal.

    I think Gold will go to or even above 10k After the big dollar collapse, but it at some point it will be a mistake to sell gold for dollars, because everyone outside of the US will be looking to get rid of their dollars. I can’t recomend ‘the hyperinflation survival guide’ enough. It explains in much detail past hyperinflation conditions in South America. One of the biggest points of the book was spend your fiat money as fast as possible for physical goods. I think the thing to do is buy Gold continually, wait for the dollar collapse to happen, than sell the Gold for dollars and buy physical items as fast as possible from the many dupes who won’t drop their dollars fast enough, as in within a few hours of selling the Gold.

      The US govt is buying it’s own bonds, doesn’t take being $114 trillion in iou debt seriously and only has enough military power to force martial law on it’s own people. There is simply no way the dollar is going to survive outside of a US under martial law. China and the US may team up to temporarily attempt to globally enforce the dollar tyranny out of desperation, but even that will ultimately fail to work.

  • http://twitter.com/MichaelPorfirio Michael Mason

    “SHOULD I BUY GOLD AT ITS ALL-TIME HIGH?”

    No.

    Buy it when it comes down.

    Nothing goes up in a straight line. 

    Not even cocaine.

    - MPM

  • Chris McDaniel

    Top drawer reasoning, and on the money.  Those new to buying gold (converting paper currency to precious metal currency) are always hit with sticker shock.  In truth, buyers today have no claim on fear, no right for concern.  The folks who had a right to be frightened were the buyers of gold at $250 10 years ago, and silver at $4.50 ten years ago.  Those are the brave among us.  They were forking over what then amounted to big bucks when no one else wanted the stuff.  They took the risks, not the same that buyers today assume.  They could not turn the corner and re-sell to the next guy in line, because there was no line.  There were no other buyers out there.  The early buyers were all alone, and they alone have the claim to concern. and not those just making first purchases today.  The Chinese and Indians were not in the game 10 years ago.  Central banks were selling tonnes, not scrambling to  buy tonnes, 10 years ago.  The world seemed, somehow,to make more sense than today.  There was no Tarp, no bailout, no QE2, nor QE99 on the horizon.  The greatest nation with the prime global currency was not yet unmasked as the global deadbeat it is today.  No, buyers today have no right to claim fear of ‘high’ prices.  They are instead, fortunate that ‘prices’ are only in the hundreds for gold and the few dozens for silver, and not the tens of thousands. Yet, we know many will balk at converting their worthless Federal Reserve Notes into precious metals because they still see the dollar as worth more than the gold. They will balk until too late.  And those will not be the survivors.  
    Chris McDaniel
    Baton Rouge

  • http://www.facebook.com/jay.twila Jay Twila

    Buy gold every time there is a significant price drop. Make sure to take physical possession of the gold when logistically feasible. Make certain to be able to protect your gold against intruders. Be them foreign, domestic, governmental or random.

    The goal should be to operate in as little in fiat currency as possible. Gold and silver are the only real forms of “money.” Now with all of this being said. Think about it: when ever the price of gold drops it ushers in a new pool of potential buyers.

    Think about it: if gold crashed to $500.00 an ounce tomorrow, would you buy? I think there would be such a rush to buy that the following day it would resume trading in the 1500s.

  • Jean Fnet

    “that fu**er FDR confiscated it”

    Does “fu**er” stand for “fuhrer” or ….? They’d both fit, I guess. :)

  • http://www.totalinvestor.com totalinvestor.com

    Should you buy gold at its all time high?
    The correct question is will gold be priced higher in the future and by how much?Price is determined by supply and demand.The demand for gold worldwide has continued to increase for investment reasons (more paper currencies are being printed worldwide) and has shown no sign of stalling. The supply of gold by mining companies will fall as no new big discoveries are being found or financed, and current resources are quickly being depleted.Therefor the price over time can only go up.Use any pullback as a buying opportunity for both gold and silver.

  • Ponysu7

    Taxes have nothing to do with the post office. Postal $ is paid through stamps, and the only reason they are in the red is because they are forced to pay congress prefunded fees on health care that is for future retirees, something no one else is required to do. Plus Congress won’t let them go  to 5 day delivery.

  • Anonymous

    A friend of mine has duel citizenship in Israel (his birth place) and the U.S.  He recently came back from a 6 week trip to Israel and announced that he will be returning home and hopes to do so within six months or less.  Why?  Doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure that one out.  He’s getting out of here while he CAN.

  • Anonymous

    UK taxpayers should buy sovereigns. HMRC regard them as coin of the realm, so they’re VAT and CGT free.

  • Diogenese_

     How do you know when someone is selling a package of unrealistic business information? When it would make more economic sense for them to pursue the business itself instead of selling the ‘how to do this business’ package.

     If you knew of some secrets which no one else in the diverse and deep global gold industry knew, about how to buy Gold for %50 of the spot price, would you try to make money selling those secrets or try to make money by just buying and reselling the Gold with the help of employees?

    ps, if you still don’t get it, contact me immediately for a special deal.

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