Why there’s reason to be hopeful

November 5, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

It’s been interesting to travel through Asia’s developing economies lately given what’s happening in the west.

The Irish government recently announced a budget shortfall exceeding 30% of GDP. In France, millions of workers protested the two-year increase to their pension age. In the US, Ben Bernanke once again removed all doubt about his intentions to continue devaluing the dollar.

Among Asia’s rapidly expanding economies, what’s happening in the west is becoming the butt of a bad joke… I’ve seen headlines here like “Dollar continues absurd decline,” and “France: we want to have our cake and eat it too.”

While they haven’t completely lost touch with their trade partners in the west, Asia realizes it cannot count on the western economic viability; the continent is now looking inward for future growth, to regional trade partners as well as domestic consumption.

Again, this is no reason to panic, despair, or get angry– it’s merely something to prepare for… and making smart preparations now can lead to significant prosperity and security in the future.

On that note, the main question I wanted to ask this week came from my friend Steve, who wrote, “Simon, now that the US election is over and the American people seem to have once again voted for ‘change,’ do you have any hope for the country?”

I guess I should clarify my view on the United States so that you understand where I’m coming from; countries have life cycles, just like people. They’re born, they grow, they peak, they decay, and they perish. In many cases, however, they can be born again, and this has happened frequently in history.

Consider Japan, for example, whose ancient empire was entirely devastated after World War II. They had to reinvent themselves from the ground up– new system of government, new constitution, new financial infrastructure, etc. Eventually, though, Japan became the #2 economy and envy of the world.

Russia has been through this more times than anyone can count. Brazil. Ireland. Hong Kong. There are numerous other historical examples.

As for the United States, my outlook is decidedly negative. Barring any extremes– eliminating social security and entire departments of government, promoting a strong currency, attracting business through reduced tax and legislation, etc.– the country *as it exists now* is past the point of no-return.

I have great expectations, however, for it’s long-term prospects. If you look at basic economic resources: land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship, the US has an abundance of all, including vast mineral and energy reserves, some of the best farmland on the planet, and a large, educated workforce.

When you put these resources together with a government that will simply move out of the way and make things easy for people to succeed, the results can be phenomenal.

Unfortunately, that’s not what the US has right now, and likely won’t for some time. Remember what Winston Churchill said: “Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing… after they have exhausted all other possibilities.”

As such, the US can look forward to years of gridlock, short-term solutions, and politicians that pander to what the citizenry wants, not what it needs. Such is democracy.

The major problem isn’t Republican or Democrat, though, but the system itself… and things will truly start to improve once it’s obvious that the only solution is a complete system reset.

That isn’t going to happen for at least a decade, maybe more (check out Neil Howe’s The Fourth Turning for a historical context)… once again, this isn’t a reason to panic, but a strong call to prepare. We can see what’s coming, and we would be foolish to not make provisions.

My recommendation is a two-prong approach– offense and defense. Take steps to protect yourself, your family, and your assets by planting multiple flags, and seek out ways to capitalize on all the amazing opportunities around the world. More than anything, this requires an attitude adjustment to become more globally-minded.

It is for this reason that we’re organizing our offshore workshop in Panama; this isn’t going to be a generic conference with a bunch of haughty, long-winded speakers, but rather an intimate group of extremely knowledgeable experts who are there to help you customize your own plan.

This includes bankers, lawyers, brokers, tax advisors, trustees, immigration specialists, etc. to help you protect what you’ve got, as well as some entrepreneurs and investors to help you consider new markets and global possibilities.

The event will be held over three packed days, 18-20 February, in Panama City, Panama. I suggest arriving the evening of the 17th (a Thursday) and departing the morning of the 21st (a Monday). I’m working on a fantastic hotel discount for the group so that we can maximize our time together at the venue.

In fact, we’re going to do all the heavy lifting for you… all you need to do is sign up, come to Panama, and let our experts there help guide your decision making.

My ultimate goal is that you’ll leave with a clear, understandable action plan, and a few boxes ticked already (bank account, foreign residency, etc.)

I sincerely hope to see you there, and I’ll send out more details soon.

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