Over the weekend, the global markets were all holding their breathes in anticipation of a possible Greek exit from the Eurozone. The New Democrat party won by the slimmest of margins on Sunday and now even the Asian markets have shown their relief in a slight rebound Monday morning. However, this appears to be a minimal gain as most economists (us included) are still extremely bearish on Europe. CNN reports on the ripple effect of the Greek election:
Asian markets were lifted in early trade after a victory for Greece’s center-right, pro-bailout New Democracy party in crucial weekend elections.
Japan’s Nikkei was up 2% soon after opening before pulling back to 1.7% mid-morning, while the Kospi in South Korea was 2.1% higher. In the first 90 minutes of trade in Hong Kong, the Hang Seng index was up 1.7%.
“What the Greek election does is largely removes from consideration the likelihood of some near-term disorderly Greek exit from the eurozone area,” Kurtz said. “Even that by itself would not have been such a disaster were it not for the case that a Greek exit then creates a potential precedent for a larger and more substantial European economy to leave the eurozone as well.”
“It’s going to be a very short stop-gap,” said Andrew Sullivan, analyst at Piper Jaffray. “The markets are likely to have a slight rally but on small volume because investors aren’t convinced we’re out of the woods yet.”
Sunday’s vote was seen as a referendum on the survival of the continent’s common currency. A UBS survey of central bankers found that nearly three quarters believed at least one eurozone country will leave the currency in the next five years.
Morgan Stanley Smith Barney predicts a 35% chance one country will break away from the EU at some point, compared to a 40% probability it will remain in tact, said Ron Hart, managing director of wealth management.