Posts tagged as:

bad governments

February 19, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

I really need to start out today’s letter by expressing how truly humbled I am to be part of such a fantastic community.

Matt and I have spent much of the last few days combing through resumes (200+ so far) for the job openings that I posted on Monday, and the caliber of talent and energy is really impressive.

Applicants vary in age from 17 to 70. They come from all stations of life– corporate executive, successful entrepreneur, student, homemaker; and they  hail from at least 18 different countries, from Guyana to China to the Netherlands to South Africa.

I’ve read every email with great interest and have made difficult choices to narrow down the pool of candidates. If you submitted an email, you might just be hearing from me in the next week or two.

Now… on to this week’s questions.
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February 17, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

I couldn’t believe what I was hearing… and I found myself wondering out loud- “Are these people insane??”

Apparently, yes.

I was watching Richard Edelman this morning on Bloomberg Television discussing the latest results of his research and PR firm’s annual “trust survey.”  Edelman takes a scientific poll each year, drawing on a global pool of educated, well-informed people from G20 nations.

The theme is always the same– trust.  Edelman’s research gives an indication of the public’s confidence in the private sector, the banking industry, NGOs, the mainstream media, and of course, the government.

For example, I wasn’t surprised to hear that public trust had fallen for corporations and the financial sector since last year. Edelman’s data suggest that people are more leery of business than in the aftermath of the Enron scandal, and only 29% of respondents trust what a CEO says about his/her company.

Given what has happened with the Goldman/AIG sweetheart deals, the Toyota recall, the socialization of Chrysler and GM, etc., this sentiment is to be expected.

What was shocking to me, though, was that the US public’s trust in their government and political leaders actually increased from last year– 46% of Americans trust in their government to do the right thing, which is more than the French (43%), German (46%), British (38%) and Russian (38%) believe.

What’s more, Americans’ trust in their government increased by over half of 2009’s level– a 53% increase, proportionally, from last year.  Who were they interviewing?? Barack Obama’s kindergarten teacher? The guy who owns a warehouse full of “Real Change We Can Believe In” bumper stickers?

Among major nations, only the Chinese at 74% had more confidence in their government.

Economically, 65% of respondents worldwide, including 61% in the United States, said that they want governments to *increase* control over all industries, and fewer than half of the Americans polled believe that the free market should be allowed to operate without significant government influence.

These indications are really unfortunate, because when the people ask for more government control, they will absolutely get what they deserve.  And once power has been vested to the government by the people, it almost takes a revolution to wrestle it back.

If you’re one of the minority who can properly identify runaway governments as the problem and not the solution, you should really think hard about your options.

Expatriation is often too radical a concept for most people, especially those who find themselves chained to geography by factors like job, money, and family.

Personally I would argue that family is one of the chief reasons to expatriate, and that most people would have more financial success and live a better, cleaner lifestyle overseas.

If fear and uncertainty are preventing you from making a move, I would advise that you at least get your feet wet by internationalizing yourself in baby steps.

For example, definitely consider purchasing foreign property as a first step– buying property is definitely the best way to move money between countries.  It also makes for a great investment, provides you with an emergency landing pad, and frankly gives you a reason to travel from time to time.

Do your research and buy in a free country that has a stable economy and fiscal discipline.

Panama is an excellent example– the country’s debt level is currently a manageable 45% of GDP, and the government is astutely borrowing a bit of very cheap money to make lucrative infrastructure investments that will yield a soundly positive ROI.

Furthermore, as the country continues to experience a solid growth rate and manage its debt levels, Panama’s proportion of external debt to GDP should continue to decline in the foreseeable future.

In fact, Panama is one of just a handful of countries that experienced positive GDP growth last year, and you can see evidence of this on the ground. There are currently some attractive investment opportunities in the property market, as well as fairly straightforward bank financing available.

I promised a few weeks ago to bring you some inside information about Panama’s property market, and I intend on doing that tomorrow. More to follow.

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February 16, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

The popular press has been bandying a lot of cute acronyms for the ’sick’ European countries. I have seen PIIGS, STUPIDs, and DUHs… and while the individual circumstances of each country are different, they all have one thing in common–

Their obligations far exceed their assets, and they have to borrow money just to pay interest on the money that they’ve already borrowed.

We don’t need a new acronym because there’s already a word for it: junkie. Before too long, the entire euro zone may be heading in this direction… in fact, while the final nail may be a long way off, markets are clearly starting to build a coffin for the euro.
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February 5, 2010
Mexico City, Mexico

Greetings once again from Mexico; I’m sure many who listen to the mainstream press would be amazed to find that I have spent 48 hours on the ground here with nary a swine flu infection nor simple mugging to report.

I did, however, miss my flight to Canada.

What can I say… Mexico City traffic has got to be the most dangerous thing in this country. I was able to change my plans and will be in Vancouver this evening.

Before I get started on answering your questions from the mailbag, I wanted to mention a brief administrative note– if you ever have difficulties opening or reading the daily email in your inbox, you can always read it online at www.SovereignMan.com; in the meantime, my staff is working on resolving all readability issues.

Moving on to questions.

To start off, John asks: “Hi Simon- you don’t talk about politics much, though I have a feeling where you stand by reading your letter each day. Can you give me a better idea of how you see the world, politically?”

First and foremost, I want to make an important distinction. I am an avowed anarchist. Just the word itself has an incredibly negative connotation– it conjures images of subversion, treachery, and treason… or at least crazy guys hoarding guns in Montana.

People too often confuse ‘anarchy’ with ‘chaos’, usually citing examples like “if there were no laws, what would keep people from driving on the wrong side of the road?” or “who would come and put out the fire when your house is burning?”

These arguments are weak and only serve to indicate the extent to which governments have brainwashed people. Most citizens now believe that the political establishment is vital for their own survival, as if we would all spontaneously combust were it not for the FDA.

Anarchy is not chaos. The political establishment is chaos. Politicians have a horrific track record managing wars, finances, education, health care, and just about everything else they put their hands on… all at the expense of public resources.  Very little changes for the better, at least thanks to the government.

And yet, every few years, we still put on a charade to cast our vote, as if this ridiculous exercise has any meaning whatsoever. It’s an unpopular thing to say, but participating in the political process is a complete waste of time… particularly since we have a much more powerful voice.

The most important votes we cast are as consumers, not constituents… we vote with our dollars every single day. The best candidates, i.e. the producers, win our votes, and the worst candidates go bust. No amount of baby-kissing can save a defunct company.

Hell, not even a government bailout could keep Chrysler and GM alive.

Personally, I would prefer to have all of my tax dollars back in my pocket and pay a usage fee for privatized roads, or an annual subscription for a privatized library, rather than have some bureaucrat funding pet projects with my hard-earned money.

I recognize that this is all just a pipe dream, at least for now. Political institutions are here to stay, and the trend is bigger government, not more limited governments.

That’s one of the reasons why I have chosen this lifestyle– with a multiple flags approach, I minimize the impact that any single government has on my life.

Betty sends along the following comment: “You wrote that hospitals in Boquete, Panama were substandard. You are badly misinformed. Hospital Chiriqui is a modern hospital with excellent doctors who speak English for the most part; I should know, I was in intensive care there for three weeks and had five specialists attend to me.”

Noted, Betty. Thanks.

Captain asks, “Simon, do any ex-US real estate markets employ US-style mortgages?”

Yes. Panama is one of them; foreigners can get a 50% to 70% mortgage, and a better rate if you become a resident. Many European countries also underwrite mortgages for foreigners.

The other thing to consider is developer financing instead of bank financing. This tactic is being used in a lot of places around the world to mop up extra inventory. I see this everywhere now– Spain, Thailand, Morocco, and here in Mexico.

Standard packages generally require 10% to 30% down, and will finance the balance on a 30-year amortization schedule for a 5-year term.

Nathan asks: “Simon- Regarding China, I know a lot of people have been high on the country for some time. But what is the real analysis here?”

To be clear, I am not a blind China bull… but I’m happy to call a spade a spade. The ‘good’ part of the analysis is fairly simple. In the long run, there are two things needed for sustained economic growth: technology and savings.

Technology makes production (i.e. wealth generation) more efficient, and a large pool of savings becomes investment capital to create businesses, build factories, etc… things that add value to an economy.

China has both, and so the foundation for its economic growth is sound. However, there are a LOT of potential problems with China– the economy succeeds despite its government, and I’m concerned about future political instability.

Furthermore, I expect one day that China will go through significant challenges as it finds that it can no longer compete with its neighbors for low-skill manufacturing. The country will have to develop entirely new industries, and that could be painful.

Lastly, the Chinese are become cultural consumers… shop-a-holics really. This consumption depletes the pool of savings, and if sustained, will create long term structural issues.

That’s all for today, I’m off to Vancouver.  Have a great weekend.

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January 19, 2010
Mexico City (DF), Mexico

For such a pale skinned gringo, his Spanish was impeccable. We were both sitting in the business class lounge at the airport, and the fluidity with which he was prattling away in Spanish on his mobile phone caught my attention.

Ordinarily, given his very light complexion and European fashion sense, I would have guessed that he was Argentine; his accent, however, was devoid of the traditional telltale Argentine indicators– the “sh” and “zh” sounds, use of the ‘vos’ for the second person, etc.

I was a bit puzzled and had plenty of time to kill thanks to an incomprehensible flight delay, so when he finished his conversation, I asked him (in Spanish) where he was from.

“I’m originally from Britain, ‘mate.” He must have noticed my surprise at hearing the Queen’s English, so he followed that up with “but I’ve been living in Caracas for over 20-years.”

Needless to say, this sparked a lengthy conversation between us about the politics of Hugo, the real situation on the ground in Venezuela, and what he’s doing to protect himself. I’ll call him Baldwin.
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It was an interesting weekend, to say the least, and what I am about to tell you is a true story.

I ‘intended’ to drive down to Gibraltar this weekend, hop a ferry for Morocco, and spend a few days in Africa. As it happened though, once the famous Rock of Gibraltar emerged in the horizon, I inadvertently turned my car north into the Sierra Bermeja mountains.

Down on the coast where I am living, and on the highway where I took the wrong turn, the weather is a sunny 20 Celsius (68 F). Within 30 minutes, at an altitude of 5,000 feet, I found myself driving through the worst blizzard I had ever seen. I was only about 60 kilometers from where I started and yet I might as well have been on another planet.

Moreover, I was totally unprepared. The port in Gibraltar is an hour’s drive from my home, so my quarter-tank of gas seemed sufficient for the journey… and as I had planned on sunny North Africa, I was wearing very light clothes. My companion, a young brunette, was wearing a skirt with heels.

With just one wrong turn, though, we were leisurely winding up the mountain… at first, the breathtaking scenery was so enjoyable that we didn’t mind being lost, so I decided against turning back… of course, I had no idea what powerful storm awaited me.

At one point I looked on the side of the road and remarked incredulously, “is that SNOW?” You should understand that, by nature, I am a warm-weather person… so unless I’m on skis or roasting marshmallows, the very sight of snow and ice is a net negative in my book.

Soon the warning signs became even more apparent… signs for black ice, emergency vehicles, and entire convoys of travelers pulled over on the side of the road.  Conditions became worse and worse as we ascended the mountain, and before I knew it, we were in essentially zero-visibility with high wind shears and flurries of snow and ice.

I was angry at myself for being so stupid– I had completely ignored the warning signs back when conditions were still safe.  I had seen with my own eyes the snow on the shoulder, patches of ice on the road… did I honestly think that things would get better the further up the mountain I drove?

No. I ignored the warning signs and I hadn’t made a single preparation for the hazards; my gas light was buzzing, and I had no means of food, water, or warmth.

I consider myself to be a tough hombre, but I’m back on my terrace right now penning this letter out of pure, dumb luck, and nothing else. I was fortunate enough to find an open service station that provided food, fuel, and useful directions.

I realized later that my experiences this weekend serve as an allegory to what is happening in the world right now… there is a fantastic storm awaiting the unprepared, and it is just a few more kilometers ahead up the mountain.

While some travelers have turned around and headed back towards the coast, and others are stocking up on provisions, too many people remain completely oblivious to the very clear warning signs of the danger ahead.

My goal is not to induce any unnecessary excitement… but rather to simply promote some basic sensibility. It seems to be a part of human nature to ignore warning signs and wait until it is too late to take action– whether it be with our health, romantic relationships, finances, or even our livelihood.

I hope I can serve as that little voice in your ear, reminding you to do the things you know that you should do.

For example, if you have savings, it’s time to move them, either to a foreign bank or private vault facility. If you own a business, think about restructuring overseas and exploring new markets. If you have the means, consider foreign property and second citizenship. If you don’t, it’s time to seek new opportunities to generate wealth.

Tomorrow I will start a series on overseas business structures, including the real truth about tax implications and benefits for entrepreneurs. If you own a business, you won’t want to miss it.

In the meantime, I really recommend that everyone check out this month’s Casey Report, which was a special edition on expatriation.

Doug Casey, who is my friend and mentor, wrote what I consider to be among the finest pieces of his 30+ year career.  As a veteran permanent traveler and longtime international speculator, Doug’s words are based on hard experience:

“A crisis (and this will be a very real one) always draws exhortations from the authorities to ‘unite’ and ‘pull together’ ­- which usually boils down to following orders and turning in those who don’t. People will want, and will get, ’strong leadership.’ This does not bode well for libertarians, classical liberals, and free thinkers, in general. . . I suggest you at least consider the possibility of transplanting yourself, or at least start by transplanting some assets. Don’t look at it as a negative thing. The world is your oyster. Make the most of it.”

Doug goes on to make a lot of specific recommendations about regions of the world that he likes / doesn’t like, and following his article is a great overview on financial expatriation options like foreign annuities and mutual funds.

If you’re not currently a subscriber to the Casey Report, you can find out more here.

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If I have been too subtle in the past, let me be absolutely clear this afternoon: the time to do something, the time to take action to safeguard your future and your families livelihood, is NOW.

I’m more impassioned than usual this morning… and with reason.  Reluctantly, I tuned in to Team Obama’s press briefing last night about the ongoing saga of the Nigerian underwear bomber.  Obama’s is clearly trying to cultivate a fear of al-qaeda while simultaneously building blind trust in his government.

After the President’s remarks, his Homeland Security Secretary and Deputy National Security Advisor took the stage to unveil a series of proposals to ‘improve security.’

I’ll spare you the details as you have probably already heard them, but the bottom line is simply more government– a bureaucrat’s ultimate and only solution. This means more TSA, more air marshals, more undercover agents, more gun-toting soldiers, more pat-downs, more scanners, more searches, more scrutiny, more suspicion, etc.

How do you spell police state?

I’m ordinarily laid back about this sort of thing. I can afford to be since I’m a safe distance from all of that stupidity… but in this case I looked down to find that my knuckles were turning white, clenched around my glass of 2005 priorato.

I set my wine down and remarked to my friends who were watching with me, “What is it going to take for people to wake up and get the hell out of town? Do they need legions of storm troopers marching down the street before they realize it’s time to go??”

I was positively exacerbated.  The US is turning into a police state, and I’m not even saying this specifically to Americans living there. Many countries around the world are following close order behind Uncle Sam.

Once again, the time to act is now.  So what should you do?

First, make sure you have access to funds outside of your home country. This is one of the most important flags that you can plant.  You should open a foreign bank account (like I discussed in the Panama Black Paper), and/or consider storing precious metals in a private storage facility overseas.

Later this quarter, I plan on releasing a new Black Paper that contains actionable information to open an account at safe foreign banks that still take US customers.  You haven’t heard of most of them, and would probably never hear about them because it’s actually illegal for foreign bank to advertise in the United States in most cases.

Stay tuned for that.

Second, you should really be thinking hard about foreign property. Why? Because it can be a great investment; it’s an easy, non-reportable way to move money overseas; and it can be your escape hatch when you’re finally ready to hit the eject button.

Remember, I’m not talking about a 50 million euro villa in Monaco; you can pick up cheap land in Latin America for less than $50 per acre, and I’m pretty sure that everyone reading this letter has at least 50 bucks to spare.

Also, as I’ve discussed in the past, you can buy foreign property using your tax-deferred retirement savings, and I plan on revisiting this topic in short order because it is an absolute no-brainer.

Additionally, if there’s interest, I may also explore the idea of building a small, cost-effective, subscribers-only development.  It would likely be on the outskirts of Panama City and include self-sustaining fresh water and agricultural resources.

Third, if you have the means, you should really consider obtaining second (or third, fourth, etc.) citizenship. Second citizenship can be the ultimate emergency exit if things get really bad, and it effectively serves as the most comprehensive insurance policy you could even have.

I have a lot of contacts in this field, and my colleagues and I are currently experimenting with a few options that I plan on bringing to you soon.  I won’t bring you a passport program unless one of us has gone through the process ourselves, so give me some time while we play guinea pig.

Fourth, give serious consideration to your finances; unless you are already independently wealthy or have sustainable income streams, think about what you would do to earn money if you lost your job today.

Think about what skills you have– what problems can you solve that other people are willing to pay you for? What opportunities to you see around you that can be quickly and profitably exploited?

I guarantee you that there is opportunity everywhere around you. For example, a friend of mine is an intelligent, 22-year old girl who lives in Minsk, Belarus– the last bastion of the Iron Curtain.  While Belarus is not the totalitarian state it once was under the Soviet Empire, it’s pretty close.

And yet, despite living under a tyrannical yolk, my friend has become quite a successful entrepreneur, launching a successful brick-and-mortar company and several profitable web sites just within the last few months.

I raise this simply to point out that if an inexperienced but intelligent and energetic young girl can find opportunity in a place like Belarus, then I would wager that there is a plethora of opportunity out there in places like Panama, Abu Dhabi, Chile, China, Angola, Thailand, Bulgaria, and even the US/Europe.

In fact, I know this to be true because I see so much of this opportunity when I travel.

So those are the top four things I would recommend you do in making your own personal preparations. I clearly have a lot of work to do between the real estate, the citizenship programs, and the banking Black Paper… but after seeing the writing on the wall so plainly last night, I will be refocusing my efforts to get these moving quickly for you.

In the meantime, let me know your thoughts– I’m frankly curious to know what you would like to see in a real estate development, and at what, if anything, it would take for you to hit the eject button.

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January 5, 2010

Reporting from: Estepona, Spain

I’ve spent a lot of time lately sitting on the terrace of my coastal villa here in southern Spain, enjoying great conversations with friends, pondering the markets, and making significant investment and business decisions.

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I’ve found that it’s much easier to do this in a peaceful environment, free of the normal distractions that can invade our daily lives.

In fact, one of the key benefits of living a multiple flags lifestyle overseas is building up a wall against these distractions.  As I travel, I become markedly out of touch with the sensationalized minutia that pervades national headlines back at home, whether it’s Tiger Woods, Obama’s vacation, or the Nigerian underwear bomber.

Occassionally I flip through the cable news channels and spend a few minutes chuckling at their ‘in-depth’ coverage of the White House party crashers.  Since I am safely outside the system, it feels like I am visiting the local zoo, peering in to the monkey’s cage and observing a strange mating ritual.

“How bizarre,” I think to myself, shake my head, and then go on with my life in the real world.

One such series of events that has really made me shake my head is all the new attention to airport security in the United States.

Americans were shocked at the incompetence of their government agencies– how could a Nigerian man on the watch list pay cash for a one-way international flight with no checked baggage and make it on board with incendiary powder in his pants after tipping off the embassy?

Frankly I’m surprised that anyone has any confidence left in the government. Can we really be that surprised?  It’s amazing that people still look to the government for a political solution to security.

The government has a dismal track record and is consistently playing catch-up, overreacting to situations after-the-fact with ridiculous policy measures.

The immediate fall-out from these recent events has been mind-numbing.  Authorities deemed that passengers would have to keep their seats for the last hour of the flight… as if an ‘evil terrorist’ who is bent on a suicide attack would be thwarted simply because a flight attendent told him to sit down.

The government’s reactionary lunacy in dealing with these situations is unparalleled.  I bring up this point, however, not to bemoan the government’s actions. We all know they are corrupt and incompetent. What amazes me is the total lack of self-reliance by the people.

In a Reuters article yesterday, for example, I read about the security breach at Newark Airport. An unidentified man apparently bypassed the security checkpoint by walking through an unguarded exitway, fuddled around the gate area for 20 minutes, then left the airport.

Newark was locked down for 6-hours while jumpy police and TSA agents rescreened thousands upon thousands of passengers, trying to overcompensate for dropping the ball.

The article goes on to further discuss how many ’security experts’ are suggesting the use of body scanners and more intimate security in order to keep Americans safe.  Then I started reading the comments.

One particular comment from user “janeycat” probably sums up the voice of quite a few Americans:

“I for one am all about pat-downs and body scanners… I don’t fly and have no    reason to but i sure don’t want a blasted plane falling out of the sky on me !!!!”

Wow. What happened to the land of the free and home of the brave? It has been replaced by the land of the mandatory bicycle helmets and home of the safety-patrol.

To me, there is so much wrong with the user’s comment, though it is best summed up by Benjamin Franklin: “They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.”

In Franklin’s day, you were responsible for your own safety and your family’s safety. The government was not expected to protect you.

Today is a completely different story. We have abdicated our self-reliance and now depend entirely on the police and the government to save us from the evils of the world, real or manufactured.

Ironically, though, the government has determined that it does not actually have an obligation to protect its citizens.

In “Warren v. District of Columbia (1981),” the court ruled that “a government and its agents are under no general duty to provide public services, such as police protection, to any individual citizen.”

Many other court cases reaffirm the same point. It might not be Ben Franklin’s time anymore, but you are still completely responsible for your own safety. Anything else is simply an illusion.

I’m curious to see where you stand, let me know if you agree.

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