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Gold and Silver

March 15, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

I was laying in bed sick recently watching Conan the Barbarian… yes I admit it. Some people eat chicken soup, I drown myself in cheesy Hollywood violence.

If you haven’t see it, you’re not missing much of a plot– Arnold Schwarzenegger at his physical prime wields a big sword and searches for treasure to plunder.

As I watched the Governator decapitate his foes two at a time, I couldn’t help wondering if this was the image that Nouriel Roubini had in mind when he called gold a “barbarous relic” in the highly publicized tit-for-tat argument he was having with Jim Rogers…

In blasting gold and gold bugs alike, Roubini indicated that gold is a new bubble waiting to burst, and that the idea of $2,000 gold is merely speculative fantasy.

To be clear, I am not a gold bug… but I’ve found Roubini’s comments to be off-the-mark. How can there be a gold bubble without widespread gold mania? Wait until the shoeshine boy is having conversations with his customers about Eagles and Maple Leafs… that’ll be a clear sign of mania.

With all the ‘Cash for Gold’ locations I’ve seen sprouting up all around the world, we may be in the very early stages of developing this mania, but for now, the vast majority of people still don’t own a single ounce.
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March 12, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

Greetings once again from the land of smiles.

First of all, I really appreciate all the responses after yesterday’s letter in which I announced that I will be speaking at the upcoming Casey Research Crisis and Opportunity Summit. I’m really looking forward to meeting with so many of you in Las Vegas.

For some reason, a few subscribers had difficulty with the link that gives more information about the event, so I want to re-post it here in case you’d like to join us:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=181

And with that, let’s move on to this week’s questions:
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February 26, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

It’s “Judgment Day” in Thailand. I wrote about this on Monday– a Thai high court will rule today on the disposition of ousted former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s frozen assets valued at several billion dollars.

According to the mainstream media, the entire country is supposed to erupt in chaotic and violent protests today. Even BloombergTV, which I normally respect, has been running sensationalized stock footage of fires, vandalism, and Thai soldiers shooting semi-automatic weapons in the street.

Without doubt, there will certainly be renewed political turmoil in time… this happens in Thailand about every other Thursday, and they present great buying opportunities. But the reality of the situation on the ground here is anything but chaos. Thais are going on about their everyday business, and today is like any other day.

It just goes to show how unreliable a lot of information out there can be.

On to the questions for this week–
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February 19, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

I really need to start out today’s letter by expressing how truly humbled I am to be part of such a fantastic community.

Matt and I have spent much of the last few days combing through resumes (200+ so far) for the job openings that I posted on Monday, and the caliber of talent and energy is really impressive.

Applicants vary in age from 17 to 70. They come from all stations of life– corporate executive, successful entrepreneur, student, homemaker; and they  hail from at least 18 different countries, from Guyana to China to the Netherlands to South Africa.

I’ve read every email with great interest and have made difficult choices to narrow down the pool of candidates. If you submitted an email, you might just be hearing from me in the next week or two.

Now… on to this week’s questions.
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February 16, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

The popular press has been bandying a lot of cute acronyms for the ’sick’ European countries. I have seen PIIGS, STUPIDs, and DUHs… and while the individual circumstances of each country are different, they all have one thing in common–

Their obligations far exceed their assets, and they have to borrow money just to pay interest on the money that they’ve already borrowed.

We don’t need a new acronym because there’s already a word for it: junkie. Before too long, the entire euro zone may be heading in this direction… in fact, while the final nail may be a long way off, markets are clearly starting to build a coffin for the euro.
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February 12, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

I’m happy to report that I seem to be in the final throes of my Asian jet lag– I finally managed to go to bed and wake up at a reasonable hour.

I appreciate the emails that I received giving me advice about how to deal with it more effectively… honestly though, I think time is the best remedy for everything.  With jetlag, I take a “sleep when you’re tired, eat when you’re hungry” approach, and it will work itself out eventually.

Anyhow, as I am out the door and headed to the beach in a few minutes, I’d like to spend some time addressing your questions this week:

Kevin asks: “Simon, I want to purchase a round-the-world plane ticket in order to get a sense of which country I would feel most comfortable living in / retiring outside the US.  Do you have any recommendation on how to find an open-ended round-the-world ticket on the cheap?”

“Round the world” fares are a flexible, cost-effective way to explore the world. Each of the major airline alliances (Oneworld, Star, and SkyTeam) has an around the world program, and the rules are generally the same.

You have to establish your route in advance, i.e. start in Vancouver, travel to Tokyo, then Singapore, then Mumbai, then Abu Dhabi, then Istanbul, then Kiev, then Krakow, then Madrid, then Miami, then Los Angeles, and finally back to Vancouver.

The nice part is that the dates for each flight are completely flexible. If you start in Vancouver and fly to Tokyo first, you can spend as much time as you want in Tokyo. When you get tired of it and are ready to move on, you just call the airline and they will book your next leg of the journey (to Singapore).

There are a few rules– the entire journey can only take up to 1-year, and there’s usually a maximum of 16 stops in total.

Now… here’s how you save money: If you live in North America, try to start your journey in South America. Buy a 1-way ticket to Colombia or Brazil, for example, and begin the routing from there. You will save about $1,000.

Peter asks: “Simon, I’m really interested in Panamanian property; given where I see my country headed, Panama seems like a great place to set up, and I want to get out while I can. I bought the Black Paper, and I am considering going to this International Living conference in April. Do you think it’s worth it?”

Yes. I was friends with most of the IL staff in Panama over the last few years, and I knew the conference organizers quite well. They routinely put on informative events, and if you’ve been strongly thinking about buying property in Panama, the conference is a great way to pack a lot of objective exposure into a short period of time.

Incidentally I may be back in Panama by April, in which case I might attend the conference myself to meet with some subscribers and old friends.

Helen asks: “Simon, when can we hear back from you about the sustainable community, and on the second citizenship programs?”

We have about 750 survey responses from subscribers telling me what they would like to see from a sustainable community in Panama. Clearly this is something that needs to be done. My partner Matt and I are digesting the data and strategizing how we would execute this. I will provide details next week.

In regards to second citizenship opportunities– I plan on rolling out quite a bit of information later this month, probably the week of the February 22nd. Stay tuned.

“LookingToLeave” asks: “Simon, do you have any suggestions for someone who plans on possibly using physical gold as a way to move their wealth out of the U.S.?”

Transporting gold is a great way to move wealth– a mere six pounds is over $100,000. There are three things you need to keep in mind:

First, the US government (and Canada too) does not consider gold to be a monetary instrument, so technically it would not be reportable… but be prepared to tap dance in case some Neanderthal government agent becomes suspicious about it.

I say this because in my travels recently, nearly every border guard I’ve come across has wanted to know one thing: “How much money are you carrying?”

Second, don’t forget to check the regulations on your destination country. Some places, like Uruguay, require you to declare gold upon arrival.

Third, do not underestimate security. If you’re confident, you can carry it yourself, but consider engaging a company like ViaMat to securely transport it for you.

Have a great weekend, and we’ll talk again on Monday.

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February 11, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

Years ago, when I was a bright-eyed lieutenant anxious to defend the world against evil and tyranny, the government decided to ship me off to become an intelligence officer.

I remember a lot of the classroom training, learning about the enemy’s order of battle and maneuver capabilities. Ironically, we were still studying Soviet tactics at the time, even though the Berlin Wall had become a tourist attraction over a decade prior.

During my field training, we focused on collection efforts and intelligence gathering. My instructors would continually hammer into us the importance of ‘indicators,’ signs or symptoms that strongly imply a future action or trend.

According to our threat doctrine, for example, a small isolated scout platoon would be an indicator for a heavily armed vanguard only a few kilometers behind. Ground commanders would rely on these indicators to make tactical decisions, e.g. reinforcing defensive positions in expectation of the vanguard’s attack within the hour.

In his book Art of War, Sun Tzu wrote, “Intelligence is the most important work, because the entire force relies on it for every move… It is the essence of strategy.” Outside of war, the same holds true in finance. Savvy investors rely on market and economic indicators to provide intelligence on future trends.

Part of the trick is differentiating the valuable indicators from the worthless ones… and too many people pay attention to worthless indicators.  Government-manufactured statistics like inflation and unemployment rates, for example, are merely comical charades masquerading as economic indicators.

To get an indication of where the economy is headed, you have to listen to the economy. To get an indication of where the market is headed, you have to listen to the market.

I’ll give you a few examples:

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January 25, 2010

Panama City, Panama

A few weeks ago, I told you about a new private vault facility that was opening soon in Panama called “Best Safety Boxes.” At the time, I had not personally checked out the facility but at least wanted to make you aware of its opening.

Late last week, I had the opportunity to meet with the owners and take a personal tour of the facility. In full disclosure, I have decided against renting a box at the facility simply because I refuse to submit my biometric data for storage.

Furthermore, to make things even more clear, I want you to understand that I am receiving absolutely no compensation to say this, and I have no interest in the company, financial or otherwise.
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