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investing

How to invest like an “unprincipled speculator”

By Simon Black · 6 comments

March 10, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

Yesterday I apparently declared a premature end to major combat operations against the virus that has invaded my body.  Maybe it was just the celebratory Mexican food I ate last night to commemorate the end of my 4-day sickness, but I now seem to be experiencing my own W-shaped recovery.

Always the optimist, though, I’m actually grateful for a few things; namely, I’ve been too consumed with the rugby match being played inside my cranium to pay much attention to the most recent socialist musings of European leaders– something that would ordinarily have me spitting fire at the magnitude of their arrogance.

Most glaringly, Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou has been on a bicontinental tour seeking political support to eliminate some forms of derivatives trading… all with the goal of preventing “unprincipled speculators” from making money by betting on a Greek default.

Rather than misdirecting his criticism at speculators, though, Papandreou should look no further than the nearest mirror to levy criticism.  As a legendary Greek political family, three different Papandreous have spent a combined 10-years as Prime Minister, so there has been ample opportunity to get spending under control.

To lay blame at “unprincipled speculators” as a chief cause of the Greek crisis is thus completely ignorant and hypocritical.  Not to mention, Papandreou should be courting speculators to buy his country’s debt, not vilifying them.
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The cost of being a contrarian for contrarian’s sake

By Simon Black · 3 comments

March 4, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

It wasn’t too long ago that there was a concrete dividing line down the center of Europe with large scale nukes pointed at both ends. It wasn’t long before that when two sides were battling it out in Normandy, or in the trenches before that.

Throughout the last thousand or so years, in fact, there are few and short-lived periods of peace among European countries. Just in the last 200 years, over 60 wars and armed conflicts were fought between at least two European powers.

This is why the whole idea of Europeans patching up their differences and playing nice under the auspices of a central bank-controlled fiat currency makes absolutely no sense at all.

I’m not trying to predict another armed conflict here… but these are sovereign nations who have a rich cultural history of going to war against each other to expand their sovereignty. For the past 10-years they’ve given up their sovereignty to the European Central Bank… and for what?

It worked for the better part of a decade because times were good. Now times are tough, and the alliance is frayed once again.

My friend Porter Stansberry (whom I believe to have one of the best common-sense investment approaches in the business) recently wrote, “next to corn-based ethanol, the euro might be the worst large-scale political/economic experiment I can think of…”

Agreed. Now, I discussed this all last week and don’t want to belabor the issue… but I would like to raise two important points:
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Some Low Hanging Investment Fruit

By Simon Black · 2 comments

March 1, 2010
Pattaya, Thailand

There’s something not right with the world.

Yes, I’m dismayed by this weekend’s earthquake in Chile (I really adore the country), and am quite disgusted by the US government’s extension of the PATRIOT Act. Fortunately, I know the Chileans will pull through just fine, and the US government will eventually collapse under its own weight.

What’s really grabbing my attention right now is what’s happening in the markets.

A few weeks ago I wrote about “Lessons from the Intelligence Business,” in which I discussed the Gold/Silver ratio as an indicator of economic expectations. The higher the ratio (the more silver it takes to ‘buy’ gold), the greater the indication of uncertain expectations in the marketplace.

Similarly, and perhaps more importantly, I pay very close attention to the “TED Spread,” which is essentially the rate difference between three-month Treasuries and LIBOR. In other words, the TED spread (Treasury/EuroDollar) is the difference between what banks pay each other for 3-month loans, and what the US government pays.

Naturally, since the US government is erroneously deemed “risk-free”, the banks’ rate is higher… usually averaging about 0.3% to 0.5%, or 30 to 50 basis points higher than the Treasury rate. When times are tough and banks are going out of business, the TED spread rises– it peaked at 460 basis points in October 2008 when banks were terrified to lend to each other.

Now, the opposite is happening.

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Gold in Uruguay, Swiss francs, Polish citizenship, Moody’s

By Simon Black · 3 comments

February 26, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

It’s “Judgment Day” in Thailand. I wrote about this on Monday– a Thai high court will rule today on the disposition of ousted former PM Thaksin Shinawatra’s frozen assets valued at several billion dollars.

According to the mainstream media, the entire country is supposed to erupt in chaotic and violent protests today. Even BloombergTV, which I normally respect, has been running sensationalized stock footage of fires, vandalism, and Thai soldiers shooting semi-automatic weapons in the street.

Without doubt, there will certainly be renewed political turmoil in time… this happens in Thailand about every other Thursday, and they present great buying opportunities. But the reality of the situation on the ground here is anything but chaos. Thais are going on about their everyday business, and today is like any other day.

It just goes to show how unreliable a lot of information out there can be.

On to the questions for this week–
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Making money from junkies

By Simon Black · 4 comments

February 16, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

The popular press has been bandying a lot of cute acronyms for the ’sick’ European countries. I have seen PIIGS, STUPIDs, and DUHs… and while the individual circumstances of each country are different, they all have one thing in common–

Their obligations far exceed their assets, and they have to borrow money just to pay interest on the money that they’ve already borrowed.

We don’t need a new acronym because there’s already a word for it: junkie. Before too long, the entire euro zone may be heading in this direction… in fact, while the final nail may be a long way off, markets are clearly starting to build a coffin for the euro.
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Lessons from the intelligence business

By Simon Black · 2 comments

February 11, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

Years ago, when I was a bright-eyed lieutenant anxious to defend the world against evil and tyranny, the government decided to ship me off to become an intelligence officer.

I remember a lot of the classroom training, learning about the enemy’s order of battle and maneuver capabilities. Ironically, we were still studying Soviet tactics at the time, even though the Berlin Wall had become a tourist attraction over a decade prior.

During my field training, we focused on collection efforts and intelligence gathering. My instructors would continually hammer into us the importance of ‘indicators,’ signs or symptoms that strongly imply a future action or trend.

According to our threat doctrine, for example, a small isolated scout platoon would be an indicator for a heavily armed vanguard only a few kilometers behind. Ground commanders would rely on these indicators to make tactical decisions, e.g. reinforcing defensive positions in expectation of the vanguard’s attack within the hour.

In his book Art of War, Sun Tzu wrote, “Intelligence is the most important work, because the entire force relies on it for every move… It is the essence of strategy.” Outside of war, the same holds true in finance. Savvy investors rely on market and economic indicators to provide intelligence on future trends.

Part of the trick is differentiating the valuable indicators from the worthless ones… and too many people pay attention to worthless indicators.  Government-manufactured statistics like inflation and unemployment rates, for example, are merely comical charades masquerading as economic indicators.

To get an indication of where the economy is headed, you have to listen to the economy. To get an indication of where the market is headed, you have to listen to the market.

I’ll give you a few examples:

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The best way to beat inflation and deflation

By Simon Black · 6 comments

February 9, 2010
Bangkok, Thailand

Money is just a tool… nothing more. It’s not the only tool, but it’s certainly a useful one that can be leveraged to acquire more freedom; we can trade money for time, money for health, money for experience, and money for assets that safeguard ourselves and our families.

As such, it certainly behooves any free individual to have some means to generate capital– this can often be through a business or entrepreneurial venture.

Once wealth has been accumulated, though, it is equally important to be able to maintain and grow the account through sensible, well-grounded investments.

Before allocating any investment capital for the long-term, though, investors need to address a fundamental question: will the world’s pent-up economic deficiencies ultimately result in inflation or deflation?
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How to make an extra $12,422,575.54

By Simon Black · 8 comments

January 12, 2010
Estepona, Spain

There is really a great deal of information out there about offshore corporate structures… frankly it’s mind numbing. Do a search for “offshore corporation” and you will undoubtedly return over a million websites promising you fast incorporation in Panama or the BVI, as well as a host of ‘benefits’ for that particular jurisdiction.

Are these benefits real? Does it make sense to structure a business overseas?

Yes. Planting a flag overseas provides asset protection benefits, and in many cases, significant tax benefits… even if you are a US citizen. It is possible, for example, to generate corporate profits free of tax liability, and to defer personal income tax liability indefinitely.

Let me first back up for a moment and explain some of the lovely US regulations that govern foreign corporations for US taxpayers. (as an aside, you should realize that I am not a tax attorney, nor does this constitute tax advice)

The first is section 957 of the Internal Revenue Code pertaining to “Controlled Foreign Corporations (CFC)”. A CFC is any foreign registered company with more than 50% direct or indirect ownership by a US person.

If a company is deemed to be a CFC, the IRS essentially views it as a domestic US company and expects the foreign company to file a tax return every year.

That’s where places like Panama come in. Some people try to get slick and form a Panamanian company, hiding behind their lawyers as nominee directors. If their name is withheld from a public registry, the US government will never know about their ownership interest… right?

Guess again. Basing your tax strategy around another human being keeping your secrets in just plain absurd. Your lawyer may be a good guy, but when push comes to shove and the US government comes knocking, he’ll sing like a canary.

Let me underscore this point again even more clearly– do NOT expect to hide profits through an offshore company without the government finding out. They will find out. Privacy and secrecy are gone, at least for now.

Fortunately, there’s a big fat silver lining. Most people do not realize that there are perfectly legitimate ways to structure your business interests overseas and realize significant benefit.

Big businesses do this all the time; large multinationals have subsidiaries and affiliate offices all over the world. Consider Boston Scientific, which manufactures products in Ireland and then ’sells’ them around the world. The company only pays a 12.5% tax to Ireland on its profits from those sales, rather than 30% to the IRS.

You might be thinking to yourself right now– “Great… except I don’t plan on opening a multi-million dollar medical device manufacturing facility in Ireland.” Believe it or not, in many ways it’s even easier for some small businesses to capitalize on this concept, especially if you have an online presence. Here’s why:

A foreign corporation is subject to US income tax, depending on the situation, if any of the following are true–

First, if the foreign company has a permanent establishment in the United States; ‘permanent establishment’ is ordinarily defined by specific tax treaties, but usually includes things like an office, factory, or workshop.

Second, if the foreign company is engaged in a “US trade or business” or has US-source income; income source rules are defined by Internal Revenue Code section 862.

For example, if a business produces inventory, the source of income is where the inventory is produced; if a business performs personal service, the source is where the services were performed. For businesses that sell inventory, the source of income is where the products are sold.

As you can see, these rules clearly favor many types of enterprises, including e-commerce businesses, some service providers, overseas manufacturers, and businesses owned by expatriates.

Foreign corporations that fit these circumstances are not subject to paying US taxes. The company may be subject to tax in its own jurisdiction, but many (BVI, Cayman Islands, Labuan, Singapore, etc.) do not tax corporations on income earned outside of their borders.

In this manner, the corporate entity is free of tax liability. However, when the corporation makes dividend distributions to its owners (US taxpayers), the US citizen will pay tax on those distributions.

Presently, the dividend tax rate is quite low, but you can be sure that the Obama administration will raise the dividend tax in the future. If the corporation does not distribute profits to the owners, however, the individual has no immediate tax payment due and effectively defers his tax liability indefinitely.

Here’s an example– you are a US citizen and own an e-commerce company based in BVI. You have no permanent establishment in the US and have no US-source income by the IRS rules. The company does not pay tax to the US, nor does it pay tax to BVI.

Assume your company nets $1 million annually. You do NOT distribute this income, and rather invest all of your profits with a 20% annual return. At the end of 10-years, your business has accumulated $25.958 million.

Now assume the same business is structured in the US paying 30% to the government. At the end of 10-years, the business will have accumulated $13.536 million.

The compounding power of tax-deferred profits is extraordinary– you make an extra $12,422,575.54 with a properly structured foreign company.

This week I’m going to be interviewing one of the country’s premier international tax attorneys who specializes in offshore business structures. As a personal favor to me, he has agreed to walk you through the regulations and explain how you might be able to realize these benefits.

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