Posts by Tim Price

Tim Price is a London-based wealth manager. While most of the investing herd crowds into dangerous, overpriced stocks, Tim Price lives and breathes value investing 24/7 as he searches for great investments all over the world for his clients.

  • First post: 04/12/2012
  • Posts written: 102

Latest Articles

Into the Unknown

November 3, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: This essay was penned by Tim Price, a London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International.]

Strange things are happening in the bond market.

Few of them are stranger than the reports Jeremie Banet, a French fund management colleague of former Pimco executive Bill Gross, quit the bond business altogether to sell croques-monsieur from a food truck.

Bill Gross, whose management style has[...] Click here to continue reading

Quantitative Easing is like “treating cancer with Aspirin”

October 27, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.]

Shortly before leaving the Fed this year, Ben Bernanke rather pompously declared that Quantitative Easing “works in practice, but it doesn’t work in theory.”

There is, of course, no counter-factual.

We’ll never know what might have happened if the world’s central banks had not thrown trillions of dollars at the banking system, and[...] Click here to continue reading

One simple chart to explain the defining problem of our times

Bending Time, Lost in Time
October 13, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.]

“When sorrows come,” wrote Shakespeare, “they come not single spies, but in battalions.”

True. And Jeremy Warner for the Daily Telegraph identifies ten such sorrows in his ‘ten biggest threats to the global economy’:

1)  Geopolitical risk;

2)  The threat of oil and gas price spikes;

3)  A hard landing in[...] Click here to continue reading

This one chart shows exactly how undervalued gold is right now…

October 6, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s Note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK and frequent Sovereign Man contributor, is filling in for Simon today.]

For the benefit of anyone living under a rock these past weeks, Bill Gross, the so-called “Bond King” and manager of the world’s largest bond fund (PIMCO), jumped ship before he could be shoved overboard.

PIMCO’s owners, Allianz, must surely regret having[...] Click here to continue reading

Retail investors are pouring into stocks at their all-time high

Investing
September 29, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK.]
“Politicians and diapers have one thing in common. They should both be changed regularly, and for the same reason.” - Anonymous.
The French statesman George Clemenceau once commented that war is too important to be left to generals.

At this stage in[...] Click here to continue reading

On the Breakdown of Nations

Breakup of USA?
September 22, 2014
London, England

[This letter was written by Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK.]

Several years ago we highlighted the work of Leopold Kohr. Kohr was an Austrian Jew who only narrowly escaped the Holocaust.

The village in which he was born, Oberndorf in central Austria, with a population of just 2,000 or so, would come to exert[...] Click here to continue reading

The West has lost what made it culturally exceptional.

Bending Time, Lost in Time
September 1, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: This missive was penned by Tim Price of PFP Wealth Management in the UK, a frequent contributor to Sovereign Man]

“Sir, Arnaud Montebourg, the former French economy minister and the sourest note in the Hollande repertoire, dares to complain of “absurd” austerity policies ? (“Hollande purges cabinet following leftwing revolt”, August 26.) If those policies are absurd, it is because they were not accompanied by the[...] Click here to continue reading

Who will end up wearing the Emperor’s new clothes?

The Emperor's New Clothes
August 26, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: This missive was penned by Tim Price of PFP Wealth Management in the UK, a frequent contributor to Sovereign Man]
Few films have managed to convey the feeling of approaching menace more effectively than Jeff Nichols’ 2011 drama, ‘Take Shelter’.

Its blue collar protagonist, Curtis LaForche, played by the lantern-jawed Michael Shannon – whose sepulchral bass tones make his every utterance sound like someone slowly[...] Click here to continue reading

It’s time to confront brutal facts

US Dollar
August 11, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management, is filling in while Simon is teaching at his entrepreneurship camp.]

On September 9th, 1965, US Navy pilot James Stockdale was shot down over North Vietnam and seized by a mob.

He would spend the next seven years in Hoa Lo Prison, the infamous “Hanoi Hilton”.

The physical brutality was[...] Click here to continue reading

Lessons in investment warfare

Winston Churchill
“Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.

“Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant[...] Click here to continue reading

They call them ‘junk bonds’ for a reason…

Stocks
July 21, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: This missive was penned by Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

They call them ‘junk bonds’ for a reason. They now constitute an offence against linguistic decency: ‘high yield’ no longer even is. Consider the chart below:


(The index in question is a benchmark for the broad high yield bond market.)

Not for[...] Click here to continue reading

A time of universal deceit

Gold
June 30, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s Note: This column was written by Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK]

“We are currently on a journey to the outer reaches of the monetary universe,” write Ronni Stoeferle and Mark Valek in their latest, magisterial ‘In Gold we Trust’. Their outstanding work is doubly valuable because, as George Orwell once wrote,

“In a[...] Click here to continue reading

Little by little, we went insane

June 9, 2014
London, England

[Editor's Note: This column was written by Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

"Are we finished ? The answer is no."

- Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, 5th June 2014, having just cut ECB deposit rates to minus 0.1 percent.

"The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is[...] Click here to continue reading

We all lost

[Editor’s note: This missive was penned by Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK.]

“I say to all those who bet against Greece and against Europe: you lost and Greece won. You lost and Europe won.”

- Jean-Claude Juncker, former prime minister of Luxembourg and president of the Eurogroup of EU Finance Ministers, 2014

He used aspirin, matches and rocket-powered roller skates.
[...] Click here to continue reading

“I’ve been investing since January and I’ve never seen anything like it.”

May 28, 2014
London, England

[Editor’s note: This post comes from Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK.]

“I don’t know what to say. I’ve been investing since January and I’ve never seen anything like it.” - Unnamed Hong Kong housewife during the Asian financial crisis of 1997/8.

What follows is a continued personal perspective on some of the challenges facing today’s[...] Click here to continue reading

The modern investor’s manifesto

Investor
May 20, 2014
London, England

[Editor's note: This letter was written by Simon's colleague Tim Price in the UK, who is currently Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management]

“The stock market is filled with people who know the price of everything, but the value of nothing.” - Philip Fisher.

A personal perspective on some of the challenges facing today’s investor:

1. The Communist experiment of the planned economy did not[...] Click here to continue reading

Albert Einstein’s timeless advice for investors

Einstein
May 6, 2014
London, England

[Editor's note: Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management is filling in for Simon today.]

 

"If I had an hour to solve a problem and my life depended on it, I would use the first 55 minutes determining the proper question to ask, for once I knew the proper question, I could solve the problem in less than five[...] Click here to continue reading

Here’s why we’re investing in Japanese stocks

Stocks
April 28, 2014
London, England

[Editor's note: This letter was written by Simon's colleague Tim Price in the UK, who is currently Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management]

As contrarian investments go, we're probably in three of the biggest.

As regular readers will be aware, gold is one – subject to the proviso that the term 'investment' may be linguistically and semantically insufficient in the context of what gold really represents:[...] Click here to continue reading

Former central banker: “[Bankers] are making it up as they go along.”

March 3, 2014
London, England

[Editors note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in for Simon today.]

A few weeks ago, William White (former economist at the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, and Bank of International Settlements) made a frank admission.

And while we search for assets whose prices are less obviously distorted by malign government intervention, it's refreshing to[...] Click here to continue reading

Why do we have faith in gold? (one simple statistic)

January 6, 2014
London, England

[Editor's Note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in for Simon today.]

On December 31st, 1964, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stood at 874. On December 31st, 1981, it stood at 875. In Buffett's words, "I'm known as a long term investor and a patient guy, but that is not my idea of a big move."

To[...] Click here to continue reading

How Isaac Newton went flat broke chasing a stock bubble

December 10, 2013
London, England

[Editor's Note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in for Simon today.]

For practitioners of Schadenfreude, seeing high-profile investors losing their shirts is always amusing.

But for the true connoisseur, the finest expression of the art comes when a high-profile investor identifies a bubble, perhaps even makes money out of it, exits in time - and then[...] Click here to continue reading

“Let’s just say Richie ran that $400 up pretty good…”

Turtles
December 2, 2013 
London, England 

[Editor's Note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in for Simon today.] 

In 1983, commodities trader Richard Dennis set out to show that anybody could trade profitably provided they were taught some simple rules. 

His partner, William Eckhardt, disagreed... and a wager was born. 

(If this sounds familiar, it should be. It forms the basis of[...] Click here to continue reading

Madness, and sanity

Financial Data
November 25, 2013
London, England

[Editor's Note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in for Simon today.]

"In investing, what is comfortable is rarely profitable." -- Robert Arnott

Valuations still matter.

Assuming that one is -investing- as opposed to -speculating-, initial valuation (i.e. the price you pay for the investment) remains the single most important characteristic of whatever one elects to[...] Click here to continue reading

They blew it…

FedPolicy
September 23, 2013
London, England

[Editor's Note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in for Simon today.]

"This took guts."

- Comment by Steven Ricchiuto of Mizuho Securities in response to the Federal Reserve's surprise decision to refrain from “tapering” its $85 billion monthly bond purchase program.
Human beings are suckers for a story.

The story peddled by mainstream economic[...] Click here to continue reading

Why the fundamental rationale for holding gold is as robust as ever

Money Printing
June 13, 2013
London, England

[Editor's note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK and frequent Sovereign Man contributor, is filling in for Simon this morning.]

As Ben Graham, the father of value investing, observed, an investment operation "is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."

Challenged to distil the secret of sound[...] Click here to continue reading

Try this experiment yourself…

Monkey on the phone
May 22, 2013
London, England

[Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management, is filling in for Simon today.]

James Montier’s bible on behavioural finance, ‘Behavioural investing’, points out two recent discoveries by neuroscientists that have relevance to all investors:

1) We are hard-wired to think short-term, not long-term
2) We also seem to be hard-wired to confirm to the herd mentality

A particularly intriguing[...] Click here to continue reading

A deposit in a bank is not a riskless form of saving

Banks are not vaults
[Editor's note: Tim Price, frequent Sovereign Man contributor and Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management in the UK, is filling in for Simon today from London, England.]

Like Lehman Brothers before it, Cyprus may well come to be seen not so much as the cause of further crisis but as yet another symptom of the 'long emergency' that continues to suffocate the western economies.

We would describe this emergency as, fundamentally,[...] Click here to continue reading

A central banker’s checklist for prosperity

[Editor's note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in from London, England while Simon is touring agricultural property today.]

If there was ever a policy manual on how to deal with recession, the Fed and ECB's copies have fallen out of the ugly tree and managed to hit every single branch on the way down.

Indeed, if the world's central bankers had wanted[...] Click here to continue reading

How the End of Empire comes, not with a bang, but with a whimper

[Editor's note: Tim Price, Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in from London, England while Simon is touring agricultural property today.]

When Moody's downgraded the UK's sovereign credit rating last week it was something of an anti-climax.

The ratings agencies long ago lost what little credibility they ever had. Being downgraded by Moody's is like being called a moron by a moron; ask anyone[...] Click here to continue reading

What Warren Buffet doesn’t understand about investing

Warren Buffet's Mistake

"Price is what you pay; value is what you get."
- Warren Buffett



Warren Buffett's aphorism has been rightly celebrated. But to be a true value investor, it helps to have values.

Courtesy of near-zero interest rates and global competitive currency debauchery, it is increasingly difficult to assess the value of anything, as denominated in units of anything else.

To put it another way, the business of investing rationally becomes problematic[...] Click here to continue reading

Goons versus Gold

Credit expansion, wrote the great Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises, is not a nostrum to make people happy. "The boom it engenders must inevitably lead to a debacle and unhappiness."

That seems a pretty accurate summary of the current situation for the western economies: a debacle, and unhappiness. Von Mises also wrote that "The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment."

Again, check.

And, "What is needed for a sound[...] Click here to continue reading

Sobering Stuff

If you want to send a roomful of 100 wealth managers into an icy chill, have Russell Napier address them. This is exactly what happened at Citywire's Smart Beta retreat at the Four Seasons Hotel in Hampshire recently.

Napier's presentation, "Deflation in an Age of Fiat Currency," is thought-provoking, and the precise polar opposite of investing as usual. A wry and picaresque speaker, he starts with some conclusions. Among them:

- To reach[...] Click here to continue reading