It was a rare, cool evening in Bangkok, so we decided to take a tuk-tuk back to the hotel. You’ve probably seen them– they’re like open-air rickshaws attached to a lawn mower engine, and the drivers will take you anywhere in town for a buck or two.
I was riding with my friend Gianni Kovacevic who had just flown in from Zurich on his way back to Canada; at 35, Gianni is one of Vancouver’s great up and coming dealmakers, and I consider him to be among the finest investment minds I know.
To put it even more clearly, I have always made money on his recommendations, and that is a pretty winning track record in my book.
When he’s not traveling, he spends his time analyzing the markets, keeping up with his network of fund managers and Swiss bankers, and performing some very selective consulting services, which he conducts by invitation-only. Needless to say, he’s plugged in.
As the tuk-tuk driver sped a long, weaving in and out of Bangkok’s notorious evening traffic, Gianni and I talked about normal guy things– women, sports, and cars. We share a penchant for fast cars and made plans to ship my Stingray to his place in Croatia when the garage is finished.
By the time we pulled in to the Four Seasons Hotel, though, the conversation had shifted to economics. There was much to discuss.
We rejoined our other friends for dinner, and our party became quite a cast of characters, setting the stage for an interesting discussion.
Jess, an American, is a full-time investor, entrepreneur, and adventure traveler. Vran, a Slovenian who formerly owned a high-end liquor distribution business, is also a successful investor. Agron, a savvy European entrepreneur, secured the exclusive rights to distribute BMWs in Kosovo when he was only 22 years old at the time. Agron and Vran had just arrived from Burma.
Including Gianni and myself, it was a lively and insightful meal.
As we are all heavily travelers, we see much of the world with our own eyes and form assessments based on empirical evidence. One thing we all agreed on– the world has not come to an end.
Yes, the economic situation has gotten worse in recent years, and in all likelihood, certain aspects will likely get worse from here. The dollar is strained, as is the anemic US labor market. Commercial real estate carnage is just a few stops away, and the residential market is a long way from a real recovery. Major resources like fresh water and oil could see future shortages.
Most governments are doing all the wrong things, trying to prop up weakness instead of letting recessionary forces cleanse the excess out of the marketplaceca. Taxes will rise and civil liberties have been eroding, especially in the west.
Surprisingly, though, we’re quite upbeat and optimistic.
In our collective travels, we have seen some amazing recovery stories; companies and local economies have reinvented themselves to adapt to new conditions. Businesses are more productive, people are saving and investing carefully and deep discounts are starting to draw consumers back to the market.
Asia is showing the world that it can eat its own cooking as domestic consumption from China to Thailand picks up steam. Gray market employment is at an all-time high in many countries, and even some real estate markets are showing signs of improvement. The “poor” countries of yesterday now have emerging middle classes that are becoming eager consumers.
More importantly, nonfinancial factors are routinely ignored. Technological and medical innovations continue to exceed expectations. Peace and stability are becoming the norm in places like Sri Lanka that were at war for decades. Countries that were formerly closed off like China, North Korea, and Burma are showing signs of opening up.
Clearly, we are not seeing a wide-open lane full of green lights… there are major hazards ahead as there would be in any situation, including life itself. Things happen; people get cancer, get hit by a car, slip in the shower, get mugged, etc.
The same sorts of things happen to society and the world economy. And from our perspective, humanity has started to pick itself up and dust itself off instead of just lay there in the fetal position.
Despite the hazards, smart people are figuring out ways to adapt, survive, and prosper.
Focusing solely on the doom, though, while ignoring boots on the ground reality is close-minded and likely unproductive. And so, from our take, we are largely optimistic.
Jess described what I think is a brilliant new business idea; Vran and Agron were wheeling and dealing in Burma; Gianni travels the world lecturing about a boom in copper; and me… you know what I do.
