Friday Mailbag

All- there were a lot of great comments and questions this week, I will review several here:


Excellent insights on Latvia and the way to trade the devaluation. Johan from Sweden asks if we are too late shorting Sweden's banks. I think not, and here's why:

Swedbank, one of the largest Swedish banks in Latvia, posted a 2 billion kronor ($250 million) second quarter loss just hours ago, compared to the[...] Click here to continue reading

Four reasons to short Sweden

A final note on Latvia today before I put the Baltics to bed for now--

Yesterday I argued that Latvia is definitely headed for devaluation, and that European governments are practically bending over backwards to make sure we know about it.

In comments yesterday, the astute Mr. Marriott pointed out that the grey economy is now flourishing in Latvia; this is undeniably true, and we see evidence of dark economies around the world[...] Click here to continue reading

You Can Profit from this Country’s Devaluation

Yesterday I talked about the demise of the Latvian economy and how it will foretell the future of California. Today I want to talk about the opportunity I see to profit from it.

I have seen the face of crisis before, both in the military and as a civilian. But rarely have I seen such a well-telegraphed money making opportunity to profit from crisis.

Sure, there are a lot of cheap assets in[...] Click here to continue reading

Paul Krugman is wrong

I found out this weekend that Paul Krugman is wrong about Latvia.

For months, mainstream luminaries like Krugman have been telling me that Latvia is the next Argentina, and that the country is on the verge of economic collapse... wait, stop-- what does this even mean? Have the lights suddenly gone out? is the garbage is piling up in the streets? has McDonalds stopped selling Big Macs?

Since I was already close by[...] Click here to continue reading

Mailbag: Answering your questions

Today I wanted to get down to the business of answering some of your questions from earlier this week:

First of all, I apologize if I failed to make things clear when I started this letter: I am no longer part of Without Borders; Notes from the Field is not affiliated with Casey Research or Without Borders.  Furthermore, Notes is free and not tied to any other subscription that you might have.

[...] Click here to continue reading

Lithuania: There will be blood

Yesterday I wrote to you about Lithuania and all the great things it has to offer-- it's inexpensive, has second citizenship, a low flat tax, and beautiful women.  These are all great reasons to visit from time to time (and obtain a passport if you are so fortunate), but today I want to tell you why you should not invest any money here, at least not for now.

I don't trust Russia.

Last[...] Click here to continue reading

Lithuania: the good

About a month ago I was attending a private, invitation-only meeting with some of the finest unconventional minds in finance. We gathered for three days at a luxurious oceanside resort on the Maryland coast to have an open exchange of ideas, debate our philosophies, and play poker 'til dawn.  Lobo Tigre, editor of the International Speculator and my former colleague at Casey Research, approached me with an interesting proposition on the last day.

For[...] Click here to continue reading