Posts by Tim Price

Tim Price is a London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International. While most of the investing herd crowds into dangerous, overpriced stocks, Tim Price lives and breathes value investing 24/7 as he searches for great investments all over the world for his clients.

  • First post: 04/12/2012
  • Posts written: 79

Latest Articles

What a carve-up, as economists fake panic over Brexit

economic-forecasts
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
JW: “..Someone like Neil Woodford, star investor, who set up his own fund; he says the fundamentals of the economy will be unmoved [by Brexit] either way..
RA: “Well I’m afraid that every, every serious economic forecaster would not agree with that..”
JW: “Are you saying he’s not serious?”
RA: “Not for economic forecasts, clearly.”
JW: “He’s[...] Click here to continue reading

How to turn $10,000 into $22 million

value investing dollars
[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor, is filling in while Simon is en route to Europe.]

As human beings it's in our nature to seek out a great deal.

Whether we bag a steep discount on a new car, or stumble across that hidden gem of extraordinarily cheap airfare, we love the feeling that we're getting a lot for our money.

If you’ve ever found a[...] Click here to continue reading

Tim Price: Why I’m voting to leave the European Union

brexit
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

On 23 June 2016, this British citizen will be voting to leave the European Union.

To me it’s clear: the EU has not only become too big for its own good, it’s too big to do hardly anything good.

Back in 1975 when the UK first confirmed membership in the EU (when it was[...] Click here to continue reading

The game has changed. Time to learn the new rules.

wall-street-rules-of-the-game
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

In their efforts to jam the square peg of financial theory into the round hole of human nature, economists have perpetrated some pretty stupid things.

But few of them are dumber than the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).

EMH states that it is impossible to beat the market because the efficiency of the market means[...] Click here to continue reading

Surviving Mission Creep

euro-sinking
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“So there is another reason why Europe isn’t growing and it’s one the central bank can do nothing about. Namely, the 19 governments of the Eurozone and the super-state in Brussels have essentially outlawed it. If you want to know why growth is so tepid just examine the Eurozone’s massive barriers to enterprise and work in the[...] Click here to continue reading

Raging bull

raging-bull
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“The nonsense and frustrations we all witness in this industry every day is a red hot ember that drives us, a prime motivator to push back against the endless firehose of bullshit that the Wall Street machinery manufactures. The single biggest and most profitable product that the Finance Factory cranks out every day is bullshit, and each[...] Click here to continue reading

Time to be bullish

bull-market
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“We don’t see a recession coming in the United States.”
- Abby Joseph Cohen in a recent Bloomberg interview.
US corporate profits are experiencing a “gut wrenching slump”, according to SocGen’s Albert Edwards, in a research note published last Thursday (‘US whole economy profit slump makes a recession now virtually inevitable’).
“And with the US corporate sector[...] Click here to continue reading

The original ‘too big to fail’ from 2,500 years ago

too-big-to-fail
[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in while Simon is en route to Colombia.]

Successful investing requires having an edge. If you do not know what your edge is, you do not have one.

One doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist, or even a die-hard contrarian to have an edge. But given the competition from vast numbers of rival investors, it pays to go[...] Click here to continue reading

The triumph of the invisible hand

japan-economy-market
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

“By virtue of exchange, one man’s prosperity is beneficial to all others.” - Frédéric Bastiat.
It remains one of the most powerful metaphors in economics. In 1850 Frédéric Bastiat gave the world the story of the broken window. The son of a shopkeeper accidentally breaks a pane of glass in the shop. A crowd gathers at[...] Click here to continue reading

Our survey said

Tim Price 1
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“It is because the public are a mass – inert, obtuse and passive – that they need to be shaken up from time to time so that we can tell from their bear-like grunts where they are – and also where they stand. They are pretty harmless, in spite of their numbers, because they are fighting against[...] Click here to continue reading

Kings of the wild frontier

iran-emerging-market
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

“Simple but not easy”
- The title of Richard Oldfield’s book about value investing.
It has a young, highly educated population. 60% of its people are under the age of 35. It has a literacy rate of over 85%. Almost a quarter of a million new engineers graduate from its universities every year. And its stock[...] Click here to continue reading

50 years of data prove Value Investing to be the most profitable investment strategy

Inflation and Deflation
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]


In his book What works on Wall Street, James O’Shaughnessy analysed a variety of strategies that delivered market-beating returns in the US stock market.

Value investing proved to be one of the most outstanding.

O’Shaughnessy took a variety of metrics – the price/sales ratio (PSR), price/cashflow, price/book and price/earnings – and then collated[...] Click here to continue reading

Where the puck will be

where-the-puck-stops
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.” - Charles Kettering.
Perhaps the most extraordinary and important presentation you will ever see can be found on YouTube, here. Dr Albert A Bartlett, Professor Emeritus at the Department of Physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder,[...] Click here to continue reading

Everything changes at zero

zero-interest-rate-policy
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]


For the benefit of non-subscribers, there are two versions of the Financial Times newspaper. One of them is the hard copy edition, still printed on pink paper, an exact digital replica of which is available on the paper’s website to subscribers. The second is the website itself, at www.ft.com. The difference between the two is[...] Click here to continue reading

Your do-it-yourself front page financial Armageddon story

breaking-news-paper




[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

“The media select, they interpret, they emotionalize and they create facts.. The media not only reduce reality by lowering information density. They focus reality by accumulating information where “actually” none exists.. A typical stock market report looks like this: Stock X increased because.. Index Y crashed due to.. Prices Z continue to[...] Click here to continue reading

Inside the battle for control of the Federal Reserve

shutterstock_165763190
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]


A Shandong 5000 electroglide flatbed currency printing machine named ‘Ted’ has edged ahead in a fiercely competitive fight for the chairmanship of the US Federal Reserve, narrowly in front of its major rival, the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen high speed sheet fed rotary offset press, christened ‘Heidi’.

In an ominous sign for supporters of the Heidelberger[...] Click here to continue reading

Sage investment advice from Mike Tyson

tyson-money
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International.]

In a crisis, it helps to have good counsel. Consider the following sage advice from investment strategist Mike Tyson:

“Everyone has a plan ‘til they get punched in the mouth.”

Or as German military strategist Helmuth von Moltke the Elder put it, somewhat more formally:

“No battle plan ever survives contact with the[...] Click here to continue reading

What’s the last dollar they can print before financial crisis?

Money-printing-inflation
[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International, is filling in for Simon today.]

In the field of mathematics, chaos theory studies the behavior of systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

The idea in chaos is that, like life itself, where you start today has tremendous influence on what happens next.

In chaos, even very tiny changes to initial conditions can lead to wildly divergent[...] Click here to continue reading

History repeats

warren-buffet-history
“The proper behaviour all through the holiday season is to be drunk. This drunkenness culminates on New Year’s Eve, when you get so drunk you kiss the person you’re married to.”

- P.J. O’Rourke.


On May 29th 1969, Warren Buffett wrote to his partners at the Buffett Partnership, informing them of his intention to retire, and wind up the business. The letter expressed his concerns with admirable candour:
“Quite frankly, in spite of any factors[...] Click here to continue reading

The hike before Christmas

janet-yellen-christmas
“Christmas at my house is always at least six or seven times more pleasant than anywhere else. We start drinking early. And while everyone else is seeing only one Santa Claus, we'll be seeing six or seven.'

- W.C. Fields.
‘Twas the hike before Christmas, and all over the shop
Short end traders were waiting for prices to drop.
Bloomberg and Reuters, the FT all there
To capture the moment – if Yellen would[...] Click here to continue reading

Clearly we lack the intellect to question our central bank overlords

Mario-Draghi-intelligence
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

Leon Walras, one of the original economists and idiots who adapted most of his theories from the world of physics, once posited the fancy-sounding General Equilibrium Theory to explain market behavior.

Investor George Soros advocates an alternative theory which he terms ‘reflexivity’:
“[F]inancial markets can create inaccurate expectations and then change reality to accord with them.[...] Click here to continue reading

Here’s how to trigger a bank run

Banks-collapse
[Editor’s Note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

On August 6, 1979, Paul Volcker as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve was determined to eliminate the terribly high inflation that had taken hold of the system. And he succeeded.

The Fed’s primary interest rate stood at 11% when Volcker entered office. By June 1981 he had hiked them all the way to 20%.
[...] Click here to continue reading

The most undervalued investment markets in Asia

asian-markets
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

Seven years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, everything has changed, and yet nothing has changed.

There is no longer a perception of panic. $14 trillion of central bank stimulus has seen to that.

But at the same time, a predicament brought to crisis by too much borrowed money has been exacerbated by much[...] Click here to continue reading

Forty centuries of wage and price controls

price-rationing-pledge
[Editor’s Note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

Léon Walras is the patron saint of modern economics.

In other words, he was a clueless failure who hijacked immutable principles from the world of physics and misapplied them to the economic realm.

The result, predictably enough, is that modern economics doesn’t work.

It doesn’t work because it masquerades as a science when it[...] Click here to continue reading

The Courage to Print Money

Ben-Bernanke-courage
[Editor’s Note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

If you’ve seen the movie The Usual Suspects, you know that wonderful line “The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.”

We believe the greatest trick central bankers ever pulled was convincing the world they were acting in the interests of anyone other than the banks.

With that in mind,[...] Click here to continue reading

Lunch with the Man who Saved the Universe

Ben-Bernanke-grin
[Editor’s note: What follows is Tim Price’s hilarious, satirical take on a recent Financial Times fawning article on “Lunch with Ben Bernanke” by associate editor Martin Wolf.]

---
After literally saving the universe while at the helm of the US Federal Reserve, its former chairman is now quietly pursuing lucrative speaking engagements and sinecures at hedge funds. Marty Fox meets him in Chicago:
---

At the allotted time of 2pm I am sitting[...] Click here to continue reading

Central Bank strategy: “The beatings will continue until morale improves…”

USA-fed-reserve
[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International.]

In Tobe Hooper’s 1982 horror film ‘Poltergeist’, strange things start happening in the Freeling household.

Unbeknownst to its occupants, the house is built on ancient Indian burial ground. The TV set comes to life; glasses of milk break all by themselves; furniture starts moving of its own accord.

Having spent the day watching the[...] Click here to continue reading

“Doubt may be uncomfortable, but certainty is absurd.”

uncertain-stock-market
[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International.]

As investors we are all suckers for narrative. The current narrative appears to be: China is slowing down, so the sky is falling in.

Everybody in the West used to be concerned that China was taking over the world. Now they’re concerned that it isn’t.

But being sceptical about the investment case for China[...] Click here to continue reading

Don’t tell my mother I’m in finance– she thinks I work in a brothel

dark-side-of-finance
[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International.]

Those whom the gods wish to destroy they first pay too much.

How else to account for the astonishing $200 million lawsuit filed last week by billionaire bond investor Bill Gross against his former employers, Pimco?

Like so many legal actions, this is one case where you wish both sides could lose.

Then[...] Click here to continue reading

Deutsche Bank study shows stocks, bonds, and real estate in 15 countries at all-time highs going back to 1800

US Dollar Decline
September 21, 2015
London, England

[Editor’s Note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent contributor to Notes from the Field, is filling for Simon today.]

As a child I was fascinated by the concept of a neutron star, the tiny but immensely dense thing that’s left after a massive star explodes.

Imagine something eight times as massive as our sun packed into a sphere with a six mile radius.

Gravity compresses[...] Click here to continue reading

It’s time to do absolutely nothing.

Clock-with-no-hands
August 25, 2015
Spoleto, Italy

[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, frequent contributor to Sovereign Man’s Notes from the Field, and editor of Price Value International.]

Hundreds of thousands of years ago, our early ancestors had a unique way of dealing with volatility.

If something was truly threatening, our instincts would kick in. So we would either dispose of threats by hitting them with a rock ('fight') or by[...] Click here to continue reading

“I have come here to chew bubblegum and kick ass. And I’m all out of bubblegum.”

they-live-bubblegum
August 3, 2015
London, England

[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, frequent contributor to Sovereign Man’s Notes from the Field, and editor of Price Value International.]

‘They Live’ may not be John Carpenter’s best film. But over time it became a cult classic, in no small part due to a robust central performance by Roddy Piper, better known as a WWF wrestler.

The plot has Roddy Piper as a[...] Click here to continue reading

China takes advice from Mario Draghi. Failure ensues.

Draghi-china-market
July 13, 2015
London, England

[Editor’s note: This letter comes from Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

“Nobody knows anything.”

That was famed Hollywood producer William Goldman’s sardonic assessment of the movie business in his classic memoir ‘Adventures in the screen trade’.

In finance, things are subtly different. “Nobody learns anything,” appears to be the mantra.

If one generation happens to stumble upon knowledge – probably[...] Click here to continue reading

China cheers up small investors: “Beautiful sunlight always comes after the rain…”

China flag
July 7, 2015
London, England

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor, is filling in for Simon today.]

History, wrote John W. Campbell Jr., doesn’t always repeat itself. Sometimes it just screams, “Why don’t you listen to me?” and lets fly with a big stick.

The definitive new millennium bubble, namely the NASDAQ Composite Index, peaked on the 10th of March 2000, at a level of 5,132.
[...] Click here to continue reading

An American biologist sums up financial markets

E.-O.-Wilson-financial-markets
June 22, 2015
London, England

[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

The great biologist E.O. Wilson once observed:

“The real problem of humanity is the following: we have paleolithic emotions; medieval institutions; and god-like technology. And it is terrifically dangerous, and it is now approaching a point of crisis overall.”

In few arenas are our mental shortcomings thrown into more[...] Click here to continue reading