Author: Tim Price

Tim Price is a London-based wealth manager. While most of the investing herd crowds into dangerous, overpriced stocks, Tim Price lives and breathes value investing 24/7 as he searches for great investments all over the world for his clients.

SEARCH

Mike Tyson vs. The Grilled Cheese Truck

[Editor’s note: This letter was written with Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and co-founder of Price Value Partners.] It was just over two years ago that “The Grilled Cheese Truck, Inc.” began trading in the US stock market under ticker symbol GRLD. GRLD was exactly what it sounds like– a truck that sells

Read More

Sock puppets and vomiting ghosts

[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, manager of the VT Price Value Fund and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.] It was at the height of the dot-com bubble in 1999 that The Onion famously satirized the epically irrational stock market: “Anabaena, a photosynthesizing, nitrogen-fixing algae with 1999 revenues estimated at $0

Read More
WSJ: "Dow Industrials Top 10000" & "If This Is a Bubble, It Sure is Hard to Pop"

US stocks are now the most overpriced since the 2000 crash.

On March 30, 1999, the Wall Street Journal’s front page headline blasted the good news across the world: “Dow Industrials Top 10,000” The day before, the all-important US stock index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, closed above 10,000 for the first time in history. It was a major milestone, and investors cheered. A

Read More

This data proves US stocks aren’t as healthy as we’ve been told

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and co-manager of the VT Price Value Portfolio, is filling in for Simon today.] Here’s some food for thought. There’s been so much discussion over the past few years, and 2016 in particular, about the roaring US economy and stellar performance of US companies. As an

Read More

Investing through the Looking Glass

There are problems, and there are solutions. Problems first. 1. Banks. That a bank as big as RBS could crash spectacularly, twice, says something about the immutability of human nature. This is not to single out the Scots. Citibank, one of North America’s largest banking organisations, has also gone bankrupt at least twice.

Read More

Trade-off

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] After the fall of France in 1940, Great Britain, under Churchill, fought on against the Nazis, virtually alone. Although she would ultimately be joined by the overwhelming military and economic might of the United States, for a period she fought

Read More

Not your mate

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] The consumption of financial media can be dangerous. Mixed with overpriced global brands, it can be deadly. In August 2000, Fortune Magazine published an article entitled ‘Ten stocks to last the decade’. As befits something written during the latter stages

Read More

Turn those machines back off!

Back in the 1970s, the BBC started broadcasting a children’s show called ‘Why Don’t You?’ Its full title: ‘Why Don’t You Just Switch Off Your Television Set And Go Out And Do Something Less Boring Instead?’ Out of the mouths of babes. Rolf Dobelli, the best-selling author of ‘The Art of Thinking Clearly’

Read More

Is Deutsche Bank insolvent?

This is getting to be a habit. Previous late summer holidays by this correspondent coincided with the run on Northern Rock, and subsequently with the failure of Lehman Brothers. So the final crawl towards the probable nationalisation of Deutsche Bank came as no particular surprise this year, but it is tiresome to relate

Read More

Ease this

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “There is no simple, painless solution. The world has to reduce debt, shrink the financial part of the economy, and change the destructive incentive structures in finance. Individuals in developed countries have to save more and spend less. Companies have

Read More

When they say ‘hoarding’ instead of ‘saving’ you know you’re in trouble

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor, is filling in while Simon travels to Puerto Rico today.] As Mark Twain is purported to have once said, “Predictions are hard, especially about the future.” And with this principle in mind, libertarian Harry Browne advocated a four-factor portfolio to protect

Read More

Here’s what really happened in Jackson Hole

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] The scenic mountain resort of Jackson Hole in Wyoming played snowy host this weekend to the world’s major central bankers, meeting in conclave to discuss their latest victories over the world economy. Thronged by adoring savers, the so-called Ja’ss Holes

Read More

The crack-up boom has already begun

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “Negative interest rates are not the fault of central banks” – Martin Wolf column for the Financial Times of 12 April, 2016. From ‘Human Action’ by Ludwig von Mises: “But then finally the masses wake up. They become suddenly aware

Read More

A crisis of intervention

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] For those that already have, Mark Carney is the gift that keeps on giving. Borrowed imprudently and struggling to make those interest payments ? Worry not; the Bank of England has your back. For those that don’t have, the Bank

Read More

Just who is the enemy?

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “..I sat at my desk wringing my hands, transfixed by the tragic slapstick of British politics.. “We are in the biggest domestic political crisis of my life.. “This is only the second time I can remember when the normal, trivial business

Read More

The entire financial system is exposed to this junk bond market

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] Japan got there first. 15 years ago, we met a Japanese equity manager who made an astonishing prediction: “Japan was the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event.” That seemed an extraordinary suggestion 15 years

Read More

Lessons from the worst banking crisis in history

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] It’s ironic that some of the most honest words to come out of a politician’s mouth were, “When it becomes serious you have to lie.” That was a quote from Jean-Claude Juncker, former Prime Minister of Luxembourg and President of

Read More

These six former Goldman Sachs bankers want to destroy your savings

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] Rule #1 in central banking: Never go full Draghi. Mario Draghi, of course, is the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) who pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. Or was it save the world? We

Read More

Opportunity: the most disastrous event since World War II

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] So the British people have finally spoken. The Establishment, however, chose not to hear them, turning its perpetual tin ear to criticism from below. As the flag-bearer for an unaccountable, hypocritical and increasingly bewildered elite, Martin Wolf for the Financial

Read More

Free at last?

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “How foul this referendum is. The most depressing, divisive, duplicitous political event of my lifetime. May there never be another” – Tweet from the novelist Robert Harris. “Free at last, Free at last, Thank God almighty we are free at

Read More

Safety in (the right) numbers

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “Gross: Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day.” – Tweet from Janus Capital. Bill Gross’ warning is, of course, tautological. A supernova is

Read More

Why portfolio theory is wrong

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “Suffice it to say that volatility and risk are not the same thing, but that for reasons which remain obscure most of the investment world chooses to treat them as if they are. The only one that makes any sense

Read More

What a carve-up, as economists fake panic over Brexit

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] JW: “..Someone like Neil Woodford, star investor, who set up his own fund; he says the fundamentals of the economy will be unmoved [by Brexit] either way.. RA: “Well I’m afraid that every, every serious economic forecaster would not agree

Read More

How to turn $10,000 into $22 million

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor, is filling in while Simon is en route to Europe.] As human beings it’s in our nature to seek out a great deal. Whether we bag a steep discount on a new car, or stumble across that hidden gem of extraordinarily

Read More

Tim Price: Why I’m voting to leave the European Union

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] On 23 June 2016, this British citizen will be voting to leave the European Union. To me it’s clear: the EU has not only become too big for its own good, it’s too big to do hardly anything good. Back

Read More

The game has changed. Time to learn the new rules.

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] In their efforts to jam the square peg of financial theory into the round hole of human nature, economists have perpetrated some pretty stupid things. But few of them are dumber than the efficient market hypothesis (EMH). EMH states that

Read More

Surviving Mission Creep

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “So there is another reason why Europe isn’t growing and it’s one the central bank can do nothing about. Namely, the 19 governments of the Eurozone and the super-state in Brussels have essentially outlawed it. If you want to know

Read More

Raging bull

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “The nonsense and frustrations we all witness in this industry every day is a red hot ember that drives us, a prime motivator to push back against the endless firehose of bullshit that the Wall Street machinery manufactures. The single

Read More

Time to be bullish

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “We don’t see a recession coming in the United States.” – Abby Joseph Cohen in a recent Bloomberg interview. US corporate profits are experiencing a “gut wrenching slump”, according to SocGen’s Albert Edwards, in a research note published last Thursday

Read More

The original ‘too big to fail’ from 2,500 years ago

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in while Simon is en route to Colombia.] Successful investing requires having an edge. If you do not know what your edge is, you do not have one. One doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist, or even a

Read More

The triumph of the invisible hand

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “By virtue of exchange, one man’s prosperity is beneficial to all others.” – Frédéric Bastiat. It remains one of the most powerful metaphors in economics. In 1850 Frédéric Bastiat gave the world the story of the broken window. The son

Read More

Our survey said

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “It is because the public are a mass – inert, obtuse and passive – that they need to be shaken up from time to time so that we can tell from their bear-like grunts where they are – and also

Read More

Kings of the wild frontier

[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager, is filling in for Simon today.] “Simple but not easy” – The title of Richard Oldfield’s book about value investing. It has a young, highly educated population. 60% of its people are under the age of 35. It has a literacy rate of over 85%. Almost

Read More