Posts by Tim Price

Tim Price is a London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International. While most of the investing herd crowds into dangerous, overpriced stocks, Tim Price lives and breathes value investing 24/7 as he searches for great investments all over the world for his clients.

  • First post: 04/12/2012
  • Posts written: 86

Latest Articles

The entire financial system is exposed to this junk bond market

negative-interest-rates
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

Japan got there first. 15 years ago, we met a Japanese equity manager who made an astonishing prediction:

“Japan was the dress rehearsal. The rest of the world will be the main event.”

That seemed an extraordinary suggestion 15 years ago. Today, not so much.

In the aftermath of the late 1980s real[...] Click here to continue reading

Lessons from the worst banking crisis in history

ben-franklin-closeup
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

It’s ironic that some of the most honest words to come out of a politician’s mouth were, “When it becomes serious you have to lie.”

That was a quote from Jean-Claude Juncker, former Prime Minister of Luxembourg and President of the European Commission (the EU’s executive branch) in 2011 when asked about Greece’s financial crisis.
[...] Click here to continue reading

These six former Goldman Sachs bankers want to destroy your savings

Back view of businessman in suit standing in front of panoramic window and looking at illuminated New York city at night. Double exposure
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

Rule #1 in central banking: Never go full Draghi.

Mario Draghi, of course, is the President of the European Central Bank (ECB) who pledged to do “whatever it takes” to save the euro. Or was it save the world? We forget.

Anyhow, Mark Carney, the head of the Bank of England, just went full[...] Click here to continue reading

Opportunity: the most disastrous event since World War II

crying-baby-318x166
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

So the British people have finally spoken. The Establishment, however, chose not to hear them, turning its perpetual tin ear to criticism from below.

As the flag-bearer for an unaccountable, hypocritical and increasingly bewildered elite, Martin Wolf for the Financial Times showed precisely why Remain lost:
"The fear-mongering and outright lies of Boris Johnson, Michael[...] Click here to continue reading

Free at last?

eu-uk-brexit
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“How foul this referendum is. The most depressing, divisive, duplicitous political event of my lifetime. May there never be another” - Tweet from the novelist Robert Harris.

“Free at last, Free at last, Thank God almighty we are free at last.” - Martin Luther King, Jr.
...Free of further campaigning, for the time being, if nothing[...] Click here to continue reading

Safety in (the right) numbers

safety-in-numbers
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“Gross: Global yields lowest in 500 years of recorded history. $10 trillion of neg. rate bonds. This is a supernova that will explode one day.” - Tweet from Janus Capital.
Bill Gross’ warning is, of course, tautological. A supernova is an exploding star. What he probably meant to say is that the bond market is a star[...] Click here to continue reading

Why portfolio theory is wrong

portfolio-theory
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“Suffice it to say that volatility and risk are not the same thing, but that for reasons which remain obscure most of the investment world chooses to treat them as if they are. The only one that makes any sense at all is that the mathematicians who came to dominate the financial world from the 1950s onwards[...] Click here to continue reading

What a carve-up, as economists fake panic over Brexit

economic-forecasts
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
JW: “..Someone like Neil Woodford, star investor, who set up his own fund; he says the fundamentals of the economy will be unmoved [by Brexit] either way..
RA: “Well I’m afraid that every, every serious economic forecaster would not agree with that..”
JW: “Are you saying he’s not serious?”
RA: “Not for economic forecasts, clearly.”
JW: “He’s[...] Click here to continue reading

How to turn $10,000 into $22 million

value investing dollars
[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor, is filling in while Simon is en route to Europe.]

As human beings it's in our nature to seek out a great deal.

Whether we bag a steep discount on a new car, or stumble across that hidden gem of extraordinarily cheap airfare, we love the feeling that we're getting a lot for our money.

If you’ve ever found a[...] Click here to continue reading

Tim Price: Why I’m voting to leave the European Union

brexit
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

On 23 June 2016, this British citizen will be voting to leave the European Union.

To me it’s clear: the EU has not only become too big for its own good, it’s too big to do hardly anything good.

Back in 1975 when the UK first confirmed membership in the EU (when it was[...] Click here to continue reading

The game has changed. Time to learn the new rules.

wall-street-rules-of-the-game
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

In their efforts to jam the square peg of financial theory into the round hole of human nature, economists have perpetrated some pretty stupid things.

But few of them are dumber than the efficient market hypothesis (EMH).

EMH states that it is impossible to beat the market because the efficiency of the market means[...] Click here to continue reading

Surviving Mission Creep

euro-sinking
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“So there is another reason why Europe isn’t growing and it’s one the central bank can do nothing about. Namely, the 19 governments of the Eurozone and the super-state in Brussels have essentially outlawed it. If you want to know why growth is so tepid just examine the Eurozone’s massive barriers to enterprise and work in the[...] Click here to continue reading

Raging bull

raging-bull
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“The nonsense and frustrations we all witness in this industry every day is a red hot ember that drives us, a prime motivator to push back against the endless firehose of bullshit that the Wall Street machinery manufactures. The single biggest and most profitable product that the Finance Factory cranks out every day is bullshit, and each[...] Click here to continue reading

Time to be bullish

bull-market
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“We don’t see a recession coming in the United States.”
- Abby Joseph Cohen in a recent Bloomberg interview.
US corporate profits are experiencing a “gut wrenching slump”, according to SocGen’s Albert Edwards, in a research note published last Thursday (‘US whole economy profit slump makes a recession now virtually inevitable’).
“And with the US corporate sector[...] Click here to continue reading

The original ‘too big to fail’ from 2,500 years ago

too-big-to-fail
[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor is filling in while Simon is en route to Colombia.]

Successful investing requires having an edge. If you do not know what your edge is, you do not have one.

One doesn’t need to be a rocket scientist, or even a die-hard contrarian to have an edge. But given the competition from vast numbers of rival investors, it pays to go[...] Click here to continue reading

The triumph of the invisible hand

japan-economy-market
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

“By virtue of exchange, one man’s prosperity is beneficial to all others.” - Frédéric Bastiat.
It remains one of the most powerful metaphors in economics. In 1850 Frédéric Bastiat gave the world the story of the broken window. The son of a shopkeeper accidentally breaks a pane of glass in the shop. A crowd gathers at[...] Click here to continue reading

Our survey said

Tim Price 1
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]
“It is because the public are a mass – inert, obtuse and passive – that they need to be shaken up from time to time so that we can tell from their bear-like grunts where they are – and also where they stand. They are pretty harmless, in spite of their numbers, because they are fighting against[...] Click here to continue reading

Kings of the wild frontier

iran-emerging-market
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

“Simple but not easy”
- The title of Richard Oldfield’s book about value investing.
It has a young, highly educated population. 60% of its people are under the age of 35. It has a literacy rate of over 85%. Almost a quarter of a million new engineers graduate from its universities every year. And its stock[...] Click here to continue reading

50 years of data prove Value Investing to be the most profitable investment strategy

Inflation and Deflation
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]


In his book What works on Wall Street, James O’Shaughnessy analysed a variety of strategies that delivered market-beating returns in the US stock market.

Value investing proved to be one of the most outstanding.

O’Shaughnessy took a variety of metrics – the price/sales ratio (PSR), price/cashflow, price/book and price/earnings – and then collated[...] Click here to continue reading

Where the puck will be

where-the-puck-stops
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

“My interest is in the future because I am going to spend the rest of my life there.” - Charles Kettering.
Perhaps the most extraordinary and important presentation you will ever see can be found on YouTube, here. Dr Albert A Bartlett, Professor Emeritus at the Department of Physics at the University of Colorado at Boulder,[...] Click here to continue reading

Everything changes at zero

zero-interest-rate-policy
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]


For the benefit of non-subscribers, there are two versions of the Financial Times newspaper. One of them is the hard copy edition, still printed on pink paper, an exact digital replica of which is available on the paper’s website to subscribers. The second is the website itself, at www.ft.com. The difference between the two is[...] Click here to continue reading

Your do-it-yourself front page financial Armageddon story

breaking-news-paper




[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]

“The media select, they interpret, they emotionalize and they create facts.. The media not only reduce reality by lowering information density. They focus reality by accumulating information where “actually” none exists.. A typical stock market report looks like this: Stock X increased because.. Index Y crashed due to.. Prices Z continue to[...] Click here to continue reading

Inside the battle for control of the Federal Reserve

shutterstock_165763190
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and author of Price Value International.]


A Shandong 5000 electroglide flatbed currency printing machine named ‘Ted’ has edged ahead in a fiercely competitive fight for the chairmanship of the US Federal Reserve, narrowly in front of its major rival, the Heidelberger Druckmaschinen high speed sheet fed rotary offset press, christened ‘Heidi’.

In an ominous sign for supporters of the Heidelberger[...] Click here to continue reading

Sage investment advice from Mike Tyson

tyson-money
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International.]

In a crisis, it helps to have good counsel. Consider the following sage advice from investment strategist Mike Tyson:

“Everyone has a plan ‘til they get punched in the mouth.”

Or as German military strategist Helmuth von Moltke the Elder put it, somewhat more formally:

“No battle plan ever survives contact with the[...] Click here to continue reading

What’s the last dollar they can print before financial crisis?

Money-printing-inflation
[Editor’s note: Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International, is filling in for Simon today.]

In the field of mathematics, chaos theory studies the behavior of systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

The idea in chaos is that, like life itself, where you start today has tremendous influence on what happens next.

In chaos, even very tiny changes to initial conditions can lead to wildly divergent[...] Click here to continue reading

History repeats

warren-buffet-history
“The proper behaviour all through the holiday season is to be drunk. This drunkenness culminates on New Year’s Eve, when you get so drunk you kiss the person you’re married to.”

- P.J. O’Rourke.


On May 29th 1969, Warren Buffett wrote to his partners at the Buffett Partnership, informing them of his intention to retire, and wind up the business. The letter expressed his concerns with admirable candour:
“Quite frankly, in spite of any factors[...] Click here to continue reading

The hike before Christmas

janet-yellen-christmas
“Christmas at my house is always at least six or seven times more pleasant than anywhere else. We start drinking early. And while everyone else is seeing only one Santa Claus, we'll be seeing six or seven.'

- W.C. Fields.
‘Twas the hike before Christmas, and all over the shop
Short end traders were waiting for prices to drop.
Bloomberg and Reuters, the FT all there
To capture the moment – if Yellen would[...] Click here to continue reading

Clearly we lack the intellect to question our central bank overlords

Mario-Draghi-intelligence
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

Leon Walras, one of the original economists and idiots who adapted most of his theories from the world of physics, once posited the fancy-sounding General Equilibrium Theory to explain market behavior.

Investor George Soros advocates an alternative theory which he terms ‘reflexivity’:
“[F]inancial markets can create inaccurate expectations and then change reality to accord with them.[...] Click here to continue reading

Here’s how to trigger a bank run

Banks-collapse
[Editor’s Note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

On August 6, 1979, Paul Volcker as the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve was determined to eliminate the terribly high inflation that had taken hold of the system. And he succeeded.

The Fed’s primary interest rate stood at 11% when Volcker entered office. By June 1981 he had hiked them all the way to 20%.
[...] Click here to continue reading

The most undervalued investment markets in Asia

asian-markets
[Editor’s note: This letter was penned by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

Seven years on from the collapse of Lehman Brothers, everything has changed, and yet nothing has changed.

There is no longer a perception of panic. $14 trillion of central bank stimulus has seen to that.

But at the same time, a predicament brought to crisis by too much borrowed money has been exacerbated by much[...] Click here to continue reading

Forty centuries of wage and price controls

price-rationing-pledge
[Editor’s Note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

Léon Walras is the patron saint of modern economics.

In other words, he was a clueless failure who hijacked immutable principles from the world of physics and misapplied them to the economic realm.

The result, predictably enough, is that modern economics doesn’t work.

It doesn’t work because it masquerades as a science when it[...] Click here to continue reading

The Courage to Print Money

Ben-Bernanke-courage
[Editor’s Note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and frequent Sovereign Man contributor.]

If you’ve seen the movie The Usual Suspects, you know that wonderful line “The greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn’t exist.”

We believe the greatest trick central bankers ever pulled was convincing the world they were acting in the interests of anyone other than the banks.

With that in mind,[...] Click here to continue reading

Lunch with the Man who Saved the Universe

Ben-Bernanke-grin
[Editor’s note: What follows is Tim Price’s hilarious, satirical take on a recent Financial Times fawning article on “Lunch with Ben Bernanke” by associate editor Martin Wolf.]

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After literally saving the universe while at the helm of the US Federal Reserve, its former chairman is now quietly pursuing lucrative speaking engagements and sinecures at hedge funds. Marty Fox meets him in Chicago:
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At the allotted time of 2pm I am sitting[...] Click here to continue reading

Central Bank strategy: “The beatings will continue until morale improves…”

USA-fed-reserve
[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International.]

In Tobe Hooper’s 1982 horror film ‘Poltergeist’, strange things start happening in the Freeling household.

Unbeknownst to its occupants, the house is built on ancient Indian burial ground. The TV set comes to life; glasses of milk break all by themselves; furniture starts moving of its own accord.

Having spent the day watching the[...] Click here to continue reading

“Doubt may be uncomfortable, but certainty is absurd.”

uncertain-stock-market
[Editor’s note: This letter was written by Tim Price, London-based wealth manager and editor of Price Value International.]

As investors we are all suckers for narrative. The current narrative appears to be: China is slowing down, so the sky is falling in.

Everybody in the West used to be concerned that China was taking over the world. Now they’re concerned that it isn’t.

But being sceptical about the investment case for China[...] Click here to continue reading